By FOSTER A. OSAGIEDE OGBORO
Population census, defined as a total process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining at a specified time to all persons in a country or delineated territory, predates the goe-political entity of Nigeria. Available records show that censuses were taken in Nigeria in 1866, 1868, 1871, 1891 and 1901. During these periods, census area comprised Lagos Island and small parts of the mainland.
ERA OF POPULATION ESTIMATION
From 1911 to 1931 the census area was extended with a view to covering the whole country. However, because of logistic, economic and other problems, the census exercises were based on guesstimation.
In 1911, estimates of the population of the provinces making up Nigeria were obtained by sampling except in the main parts where house enumeration took place. From the estimates, the census returns gave the total population of the geographical area, later to be known as Nigeria, as 16.06 million made up of 8.12 million for the Northern province and 7.94 million for the southern provinces.
In the 1921 exercise, the level of guesstimation was reduced by extending the scope of enumeration. At first, a township census was taken. Later the exercise was conducted in the provinces. The result of the two stage head-count put the popu1ation of Nigeria at 18.63 million. This figure was later revised upwards to 18.72 million made of 10 million for the Northern provinces and 8.16 million for the Southern provinces.
The design for the 1931 head – count was aimed at the total coverage of the country. However, following some civil disturbances in the Onitsha, Owerri and Calabar Provinces of Eastern Nigeria, by women who reckoned that the purpose of the exercise was to tax them and increase the taxes on men, an act which had tremendous disruptive effect on the arrangements, the Governor ordered a modification of the census scheme to exclude Southern Provinces.
Actual enumeration was then conducted in Lagos, and in five townships, and also in 201 villages in No Nigeria. For the majority of the population estimates of the figures were obtained from existing records. The result of the exercise showed that Nigeria had a total of 19,928, 171 persons made up of 8,493,247 for the Southern Provinces including the colony and 11,434,924, for the Northern provinces.
The era between 1911 and 1931 is regarded as population estimation era because population figures were arrived at by sampling or inferential deductions from existing records.
1941 AND THE SECOND WORLD WAR
In 1941, the Second World War was raging and consequently no census was taken. This was the first time that decennial (census taken every ten years) exercise was disrupted since 1871.
THE 1950-1953 CENSUSES
The first attempt at enumerating the entire country was made in time period 1950 – 1953. In 1950 enumeration took place in Lagos and 272,000 persons were counted. In May, June and July, 1952, enumeration took place in Northern Nigeria with a figure of 10,840,000 persons. In December 1952 and January 1953, enumeration took place in western Nigeria and produced a figure of 6,087,000 persons. Enumeration in Eastern Nigeria followed in May, June and August 1953 with the returns of 7,218,000 persons. Thus the recorded total population of Nigeria from these censuses was 30.42 million.
THE 1962 CENSUS
From 13th to 27th May, 1962, population census was conducted and although the organization for it showed some marked improvement over the previous exercises, the results were cancelled after a prolonged and heated dispute concerning inflation of figures.
THE 1963 CENSUS
Following the cancellation of the 1962 census result, another head – count was ordered in 1963. It took place in November 1963, in a tense political atmosphere occasioned by increased awareness that political representation control and revenue allocation were determined mainly by population. The census recorded a total population of 55.6 million. Although the handling of the census was challenged in court, the Federal Supreme Court ruled that it had no jurisdiction over the administrative function of the Federal Government.
THE 1973 CENSUS
With determination, the Federal Military Government conducted another population census from 25th November to 1st December 1973 (extended for one or two days to 3rd December 1973 in many areas) under the control of a National Census Board and assisted by State census Offices which themselves were advised by State Census Committees. The result of that exercise was cancelled.
THE 1991 CENSUS
Despite the fact that census taking dates back to the middle of the 20th century, the critical and strategic question “How many Nigerians? Remained hardly satisfactorily sealed until the conduct of 1991 population census. The political and socio economic imperative of moving the country forward and planning for national prosperity require comprehensive data on the country’s human resources potentials.
With the foregoing in mind and taking a cue from the practice in all modern societies, the Federal Military Government in 1988 decreed the conduct of a population census of Nigeria to facilitate the provision of requisite data for national and sectorial planning for now and the future.
The population census of Nigeria was successfully conducted from 27th to 30th November 1991. The provisional figures from the census were accepted and released by the federal government in March 1992, following which detailed processing commenced, The total population of Nigeria as recorded in the 1991 population census Was 88,992,220 of this figure 44,529,608 are males while 44,462,62 are females.
The census showed a remarkably balanced distribution of males and females in Nigeria. There are only 66,996 more men than females. The census further revealed that for every 10,000 females, there are 10,015 males.
At the national level sex distribution appears fairly balanced, but this can not be said of the component states. At the state level three cases are apparent and these are states with low, balanced and high sex ratios respectively.
The case of the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja), is clearly unique in terms of masculinity. In the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja) there are at least 123 males to every 100 females.
The 1952/53 census, conducted about 45 years ago has been commended as about the best conducted in Nigeria before the 1991 census. The general criticism against the 1963 census is that the figures were grossly inflated. The National Population commission subscribes to this view and accordingly has serious reservation concerning using the 1963 census figures as base for estimation of inter – censal annual growth rate. Using the 1952/53 census as base the growth rate between 1952/53 and 1991 was estimated at 2.83 percent per annum.
A point of clarification is however necessary with respect to other growth rates that have been estimated for the country and which have been canvassed by some agencies. These growth rates, which range between 3.2 and 3.1, were derived using the Nigeria fertility survey, 1981/82 and the demographic and Health survey, 1989 respectively. There are periodic estimates from survey data.
The growth rate of 2.83% per annum was used to project the population in 1996, giving, a mid-year population figure of 102.5 million in 1996
THE 2006 CENSUS
The headcount which was slated for 2005 was logistically shifted to 21st to 25th March 2006. After the exercise, which was five years overdue, the National Population Commission (NPC) put the total population of Nigeria at 140,003,542 made up of 68,293,683 females and 71,769,859 males. Nigeria’s population has passed from 88,992,220 to 140,003,542 in fifteen years ,it will doubtless be up to a quarter of a billion by some time in the foreseeable future, if famine, pestilence and war do not decimate us. Fifty one million extra people precisely (51,011,222) have extra problem and the problem of the whole country will grow more and more difficult with expanding population .Fifty one million extra people in fifteen years (1991- 2006)relates to 9309 births per diem. Should the trend persist, it is feared government might be forced to introduce a-one-child system.(Antinatalist policy). Though modern equipments and methods were used in the conduct of the 2006 census the results were still greeted with criticism from many quarters. Since 1963 census results have been subject of controversy. It is therefore high time, a lasting solution is found to it. It is on record that Nigeria is the most populous black nation in the world and also the world’s tenth most populous country. The Thomas Maltus factor: Numbers of people double every 25 years (unless checked) thus population grows at a geometric rate (1,2,4,8,16,32 etc) while food production increases at just an arithmetic rate (1,2,3,4,5,6 etc). It is therefore obvious that population will always outstrip food supply unless fertility is controlled (by late marriage or celebacy) famine, vice, disease and war must serve as natural population restrictions. For obvious reasons world population is hardly exact. Population and Poverty: Population pressure is treated as (law of nature) which makes poverty natural and inevitable. The root cause of pauperism is the excessive procreation of the lower classes.