SBM Intelligence, Nigeria’s leading geopolitical intelligence platform, has predicted a tight race between Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party(PDP), and Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2023 presidential election.
According to the intelligence platform, Atiku Abubakar is projected to win in 12 states while Bola Tinubu is projected to win in 13 states. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) is projected to win in nine states of the federation. Three states are too close to call according to SBM intelligence.
SBM Intelligence is one of the leading consulting outfits in Nigeria equipped with a team of data engineers, scientists and analysts. It employs several qualitative and quantitative research methods, leveraging leading-edge technological tools to stay as market leaders in predictive analytics. The firm is known for its expertise in a broad range of areas covering risk and strategy from early warning, global risks, exposure modelling to market evaluation, trend and sustainability analysis and scenario planning.
“The 2023 elections are set to be the tightest in Nigeria’s history. SBM is predicting a run-off for the first time in Nigeria’s history, with the caveat that “a week is a long time in politics”. This map projects who, in our opinion, will take each state when the elections are held at the end of February,” SBM Intelligence said in a statement.
Consequently, Atiku Abubakar is projected to win in Sokoto, Kaduna, Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba, FCT Abuja, Osun, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom states.
The states Bola Tinubu is projected to win are Yobe, Borno, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Niger, Nasarawa, Kogi, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti, Lagos, and Ogun.
For Peter Obi, he is projected to win in Plateau, Edo, Abia, Imo, Enugu, Anambra, Ebonyi, Cross River, and Benue states.
The states that are too close to call are Kebbi, Kano and Kwara.
Reacting to the projections on SBM Intelligence’s Twitter handle, Ella, a commentator, frowned at the continuous neglect of the impact Rabiu Kwankwaso will make in the 2023 presidential election, saying that so many Nigerians would be shocked when the final results are announced.
“It is so sad that the media continuously and deliberately ignores Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The shock of 2023 will be televised. Also, it will be easier for Peter Obi to win Rivers than Cross Rivers. However, he will win the entire south-south and south east”, she said, noting that Kwankwaso will win the majority of north east, north west and north central states.
Solomon Apenja, another commentator, said a run-off is unlikely in 2023. He argued that according to the Nigerian electoral law, a candidate wins when he scores the highest votes, and gets 25% in 24 states.
“Either Atiku or Tinubu will score the highest votes cast. Both will secure 25% in 24 states. I will call Kebbi, Katsina(PDM), and Kogi, Niger, and Kwara for Atiku”, Apenja said.
Njikoka of Njikoka, another commentator, wanted SBM Intelligence to provide more information on the methodology it used before arriving at these projections to reinforce the belief in the outcome of their research.
“With what methodology did you guys arrive at this projection? How did you arrive at this? You can’t just tweet this without any details as to how. I expect you guys to know better”, Njikoka said.
When Njikoka was challenged for querying these projections because the candidate he supports is on the losing side, he stated that “As a social scientist, I look for such wherever I see quantitative inferences. I can as well randomly assign states to candidates.”
SBM Intelligence curates from multiple data streams to compile, analyse and synthesise political, economic and market data to produce well-written weekly and monthly African market and submarket reports to help its clients stay ahead of the curve.
