Political scholars and analysts the world over will be perched on the edge of their seats, watching for events and indicators around Nigeria’s presidential and other elections which hold in the days to come. Nigeria’s presidential election will hold tomorrow, Saturday February 26.
The interest of the world at large in Nigeria’s elections are hinged on a number of considerations, all to do with how the outcomes will affect the country herself and the spin-off effects on the rest of the continent and the world beyond.
Nigeria is the fastest growing economy in Africa, it has the largest population of any country on the continent- 200 million people, thus posing a big market and the potential of a big producer and exporter of goods, services and wealth.
As one of the world’s leading oil-producing countries (Africa’s largest, and sixth overall), Nigeria has a towering might that no other nation on the continent enjoys. Apart from oil, Nigeria has a solid mineral sector with numerous resources spread across the country, remaining largely untapped.
The country has in the past, shown leadership by way of economic, political and even military support and interventions in other African states, including pre-liberation South Africa, Liberia and Sierra Leaone, to mention but a few.
It is considered that a stable and prosperous Nigeria would adequately sustain itself and not need basic support from external countries. It would likewise take some of the burdern of leadership, as well as economic and political support for other indigent and poorly managed African states away from Europe and the United States. It would directly and indirectly stem the huge economic and social burdens that unending waves of migrants from Africa pose to those countries.
Significantly also, it is considered that a stable and prosperous Nigeria would reduce the influence and threat of super powers, Russia and China, who are strategic rivals of the US and other European nations. If Nigeria were strong and stable, it would support its neighbours as it has done in the past and not leave them having to go cap in hand to suspicious distant friends who offer loans and other supports with veiled and compromising paybacks.
If well managed, Nigeria would be pivotal in stemming the flow of Isalmic insurgency, often originating from the Sahel regions and cascading into the rest of the continent and eventually foraging into Europe and the United States.
Overall, it is believed that a stable, prosperous and well governed Nigeria would show leadership by example in many of the aspects listed above and thus be a harbinger of peace, wellbeing and good governance on the continent.
For these and other reasons, the United States and many European states are fixated on Nigeria in this electioneering season and are spending their monies, time and attentions.
Andrew Mitchell, UK Minister of State for Development and Africa, says, “Nigeria matters to the UK, and we are following the run up to these Presidential, National Assembly and Gubernatorial elections very closely. Over the last two months I have met four of the presidential candidates and the Chairman of INEC, and emphasised our support for the process and our commitment to a strong relationship between our two countries.
“The UK government continues to work closely with INEC and our Nigerian civil society partners to provide advisory support on electoral and legal reforms, assist in strengthening democratic institutions, and advocate for the importance of civil society engagement in electoral and democratic processes to help deliver credible elections.
“It is vital for Nigeria’s stability and democratic consolidation that the electoral process is free, fair, and credible. I encourage all actors in Nigeria to intervene proactively to calm any tensions and prevent violence in the periods before, during and after the elections.
“I call on party officials at all levels to respect human rights and electoral laws and institutions and take a firm stand against violence and hate speech. I strongly condemn any actions that undermine the peaceful and transparent conduct of the electoral process.”
After the flowery talk, Mitchel threatens sanctions against those who threaten the democratic process. He says: “Where the UK is aware of attempts to subvert democratic processes at the national or state level we are prepared to take action against those who engage in or incite electoral violence and other anti-democratic behaviours. These actions could include preventing people from obtaining UK visas or imposing sanctions under our human rights sanctions regime.”
Mary Beth Leonard, United States ambassador to Nigeria, says her country, through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), has provided over $25 million in support for the forthcoming elections in Nigeria.
Leonard adds: “I think the Nigerian people should be proud of their country as they are going to the polls. When you look at the political landscape in Africa, there are many leaders pursuing extra terms or there are coups. Here in Nigeria, there has been a peaceful transfer of power which is part of the widely accepted political culture,” Leonard said.
“For the US, I will reiterate that we don’t support any candidate. We only support the process and we want that process to be transparent, credible, and peaceful.
“Nigerians are going to this election with some advantages due to the recent electoral act which provides a lot of comfort. The BVAS, the electronic transfer of results, I think it can give Nigerian voters a sense of extra comfort that votes are properly counted.
“On support, we are more involved in democracy and governance programmes in Nigeria and we are spending roughly $25 million through USAID for particular reference to this forthcoming election. And we are doing many things.
“We are sponsoring an independent electoral observation machine with some very high-powered participants including the former president of Malawi, Joyce Banda, as well as senior US veterans of African affairs and development.
“We have done a lot of work with INEC, especially on the technical aspect. We have trained some 1,800 technical workers on how to troubleshoot the BVAS and those people have in turn trained hundreds of thousands of people. So, on Election Day, if there’s a technical issue, there are people around to give technical support.
“We have also done a lot trying to facilitate diversity in the election.”
After flaunting the carrots, the ambassador Weildss the big stick. She says the US will continue to impose visa restrictions on anyone found guilty of undermining Nigeria’s electoral process.
“There has never been a list published. The United States has reiterated about three weeks ago that we are prepared to impose visa sanctions on people undermining the democratic process in Nigeria through violence, intimidation, and trying to influence judicial processes or others that can impede the democratic process,” she said.
