Scepticism and outrage are being expressed across Nigeria following a promise by the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL), Mele Kyari, that there would be no fuel shortages in the country at Christmas through New Year celebrations and three months forward into the year 2024.
Nigeria is typically visited across its length and breadth in the Christmas and New Year festivities by shortages and hikes in prices of petrol, diesel, cooking gas, aviation oil, and other fuels.
The fuel shortages and the attendant price hikes usually lead to increases in road and air transport costs, as well as the cost of home cooking and commercial catering across the country in the upbeat holiday season.
They also lead to increases in the cost of lighting up homes and powering businesses with off-grid generators in a country where power supply from the national grid is mostly unreliable.
Kyari led a delegation of NNPCL chieftains on a courtesy call to Senate President Godswill Akpabio in Abuja on Wednesday, where he assured the Senate President and Nigerians of adequate and uninterrupted supplies of petrol, diesel and other fuels in the festive season and for three months running thereafter.
Kyari attributed his optimistic outlook to the successful implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), emphasising its role in stabilising energy supply and subsequently lowering energy cost for Nigerians.
By this assurance, Kyari meant to allay fears concerning fuel shortages, real and artificial, along with price hikes commonly faced by Nigerians in the Christmas and New Year seasons.
Much of the commentary making the rounds on Kyari’s promise, in offices, market places and on social media, however, speak of doubt and outrage.
Many also speak of the moribund state of Nigeria’s four refineries and promises by NNPCL to get them working one after the other, starting with the Kaduna Refinery in December (next month).
Referring to Kyari, an X (formerly Twitter) user, Nathotio (@nathotio), said, “Tell him to stop the break-dance; what will he do differently? He was there during subsidy, now we are told there is no subsidy but there is queue.”
Mankwat Nisa (@Man_k476) described Kyari’s promise as a “yearly ritual of explanation”.
“Stop talking sir. Nobody is believing whatever that comes from your mouth sir cos it’s always lies,” he said.
On Facebook, Emmanuel F. Olaofe (@freewealth_emmy) said, “This announcement always comes every year, and we still have fuel scarcity every yuletide.”
An X user, @TomiwaBabalola, said, “See confidence. What happens after festive season? Do you have enough to help Nigerians avoid stress in the #NewYear?” Many, however, raised the issue of price. According to them, the issue was not just about availability but more of affordability.
One X user said the queues have already disappeared because the purchasing power of Nigerians has persistently been eroded.
“Sir, we are not talking about the availability, but the hike in price. Since the government (NNPCL) is one of the major importers of fuel, they should reduce the depot price, making the availability at the cheaper rate. The government can also declare a state of emergency on our refineries by fixing them, even one in every two quarters. We cannot continue to be importing fuel,” said Micheal Macabbey Aboya on Facebook.
Kehinde Akinrodoye said, “Yes you have made petrol to be enough in ember month but at what price? What about our refinery you all promised to be working in December? The world is just laughing at you all. Failed leaders.”
Some others were even more sceptical, opining that whenever NNPCL started making such promises, it was always a sign that scarcity was looming. They said NNPCL can no longer be trusted by Nigerians.
But Kyari said the NNPCL’s strategic plan to ensure continuous, uninterrupted fuel availability in the foreseeable future was on course.
Industry insiders say the usual causes of fuel shortages in the Christmas and New Year season, as in other times, include the very low local refining capacity on account of the comatose state of the nation’s four refineries – two in Port Harcourt and one each in Warri and Kaduna – with a combined capacity to process around 4.45 million barrels of crude per day when fully operational.
Other causes include challenges with access to foreign exchange, speculation by marketers and other channel partners, as well as order placement timing and maritime and port clearance logistics.
Addressing prevailing challenges within the sector, Kyari pointed at issues such as fuel scarcity, which he linked to oil theft and pipeline vandalism.
He recalled recent strides in recovering approximately 1.7 million barrels of crude oil, a feat which he said was achieved through enhanced surveillance and supervision of oil facilities by independent pipeline security firms and the military.
Emphasising the NNPCL’s pivotal role in the downstream sector, he outlined upcoming plans for the restart of the Port Harcourt refinery in December, followed by the Warri refinery’s reactivation in the first quarter of 2024.
These efforts would be complemented by the establishment of modular refineries, aligning with NNPCL’s broader goal of boosting local refining capacity, he said.
Kyari highlighted NNPCL’s positive performance in financial terms, noting a significant growth trajectory with a reported profit of N274 million in 2021, which he said was a considerable advancement from the position from 2018 to the present.
He projected a potential profit exceeding N2 trillion in 2023, further indicating Nigeria’s imminent transition to becoming a net exporter of petroleum products by 2024.
Responding to Kyari’s assurances, Senate President Akpabio encouraged NNPCL’s management to explore avenues for increasing the consumption of locally refined petroleum products.
He advocated the establishment and refurbishment of refineries, emphasising their capacity to generate employment for the country’s teeming youth and contributing to bolstering national security.
Nigeria expects its four oil refineries to be operational by the end of next year, with the southern Port Harcourt plant seen starting as early as December this year.
Last year, the immediate past government said the Port Harcourt refinery would start processing crude at the end of 2022. However, successive oil ministers and NNPCL executives have announced a series of unsuccessful plans to restart, revamp or expand the refineries.
The Dangote Refinery, which is projected as the big hope and likely source of effective and competitive refining of crude in Nigeria, has yet to begin refining operations.
Petrol consumption in the country dropped by 16.8 per cent in July to 52 million litres daily compared to 64.96 million litres recorded in June, data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show.
Nigeria is also estimated to consume 3,149 cubic feet of natural gas per capita yearly (based on the 2017 population of 193,495,907 people), or 9 cubic feet per capita per day.
Though Nigeria’s jet fuel consumption fluctuated substantially in recent months, it tended to increase through September 2018-August 2023 period, ending at 54.21 thousand kilolitres in August 2023.
NMDPRA estimates that Nigerians consumed an average of 14 million litres of diesel per day in Q2 2022. Diesel-powered vehicles are not prevalent in Nigeria, except for heavy-duty trucks.
Though the country’s kerosene consumption fluctuated substantially in recent months, it tended to decrease through September 2018-August 2023 period ending at 13,000 barrels per day in August 2023.
