The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said in its monthly Oil Market Reports (MOMR) for February 2024 that Nigeria’s crude oil production dropped to 1.32 million barrels per day from the 1.42 millions barrels per day production.
OPEC indicated it gets crude oil production figures mainly from two sources, either as direct communication by member countries or by information released by secondary energy intelligence platforms.
According to secondary sources, the total crude oil production from the 12 members of OPEC averaged 26.57 million barrels per day in February 2024. It increased by 203 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous month.
Libya and Nigeria saw an increase in production as Nigeria recorded a daily crude oil production of 1.32 million barrels for February. This represents an increase of 47,000 barrels of oil per day, while Libya oil production for the month stood at 1.17 mb/d followed by Algeria which did 906,000 barrels daily. Meanwhile, production in Iran and Iraq decreased.
On world supply, non-OPEC liquids production is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to reach an average of 70.5 mb/d. This includes a 50 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) increase from processing gains.
However, there has been a downward revision of 120 tb/d compared to the previous month’s assessment. This revision is due to some countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) extending additional voluntary adjustments in the second quarter of 2024, which resulted in downward growth revisions for this year.
In 2025, non-OPEC liquids production is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d to average 71.9 mb/d, including 60 tb/d in processing gains. OECD liquids supply is forecast to increase next year by 0.8 mb/d to average 34.5 mb/d, and the non-OECD region is projected to grow by 0.5 mb/d to average 34.9 mb/d.
The main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Norway, while production is forecast to see a major decline in Mexico and Angola.
As for OPEC NGLs (natural gas liquids) and non-conventional liquids production, it is expected to increase by around 60 tb/d, reaching an average of 5.5 mb/d in 2024. Additionally, there will be further growth in the coming years.
“Preliminary estimated production decreases in January were mainly seen in the US and other Eurasia and were partially offset by rises in China, Canada and Brazil,” the report stated.
According to the report, estimates are based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply, OPEC NGLS and non-conventional oil, while assessments for OPEC crude production are based on secondary sources.
