In the wee days of the Buhari regime, the man was quoted as saying that Nigerians would remember his government with nostalgia. When I read it, I sneered. Nigerians would rather have him stoned for stalling the nation’s development, I mused.
I never knew that Buhari had joined the prophets, and that his deity was of the sharp-sharp variety. To me, it was simply unimaginable that the lacklustre regime characterised by incompetence, nepotism and spectacular corruption could be outdone for anyone to long for it.
But what has Nigeria had since May last year when he handed over to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the same All Progressives Congress (APC)? The macroeconomic indices have gone haywire.
With his careless verbal dismissal of fuel subsidy right on inauguration grounds, he set the tone for the level of inflation the nation hasn’t seen in a very long time.
Adding fuel to fire, he altered the extant foreign exchange regime with ‘immediate effect’ like the military governments of the past.
The result was that the price of petrol spiked from about N200 per litre to N600 per litre in a matter of minutes (hovering around N700 now). Being that road transportation is the primary source of movement in the country, the effect was predictable.
Tinkering with the forex market the way he did, hit the economy in precise manner. An import-dependent economy cannot take such a shock without a very significant market impact. Prices rose astronomically. Today, food inflation is heading to 40 percent year-on-year, while core inflation stood at 29.9 percent in January – a 27-year high.
For the citizens, the times are bitter. Many people are skipping meals and suffering great deprivation. Some have protested in Niger, Kano and a few other states. But hunger will yet get acute in the months ahead. Corn, which is the base for both human and animal feed sells for about N70,000 per bag wholesale, up 100 percent from N35,000 at this time in 2023. By the time the first rains come, the price would spike and it would be a surprise if it doesn’t hit N100,000 per bag by the end of the planting season. How many farmers can buy and plant at such a cost? And if food inflation is heading to 40 percent within the first quarter, what would the picture be by June/July, which are the toughest months before the main harvest starts?
It’s not that a government cannot make bold policy decisions and alter the direction of governance. The issue, however, is that governments think through whatever policy decisions they want to make and the impacts such policies are likely to make. It is doubtful that such rigours went into these twin policies that have left Nigeria prostrate. Tinubu had three months between being declared winner of the presidential election and being sworn in. That was sufficient time for his economic team to have thought through his key policies. But he apparently opted for the ‘kick-and-follow’ football tactics – slam the policy and manage whatever comes up.
In the kick-and-follow tradition, the petrol subsidy decision was announced, and the fallout thundered home without any shield – economic or social. It was several days later that Tinubu made a promise of some palliative. And some palliative it was. He promised some N8,000 grant per month to the poorest families to ameliorate their pains. It took public outcry against the mean sum for it to be adjusted. Nine months down the line, I’m yet to hear of whoever has been given the grant.
For inflation, Tinubu apparently left it to run its course initially. Of course, Aso Rock is on another planet and can hardly hear cries from Nigeria. By the time Tinubu realized that Nigerians were roasting, and shook up his CBN governor, it was eight months down the line. Olayemi Cardoso told the House of Representatives committee the other day about the CBN’s inflation-targetting framework, which he said was anchored on communication and collaboration with the fiscal authorities to achieve the desired results. He didn’t state how long the framework had been in place, but within the same week, it was reported that the cost of clearing goods at the ports had risen four times within 10 days. A fortnight earlier, customs duty had gone up some 100 percent. So much for the vaunted collaboration between the monetary and fiscal authorities.
But if there’s one thing the Tinubu government has done with gusto, it has been the hounding of Godwin Emefiele, the erstwhile CBN Governor. This government broke the records on disobeying court orders for this man’s freedom while he answers charges regarding his tenor at the CBN.
And when the government allowed him to go home, it then picked on his wife. I guess his children are getting ready for their turns. Of course, Emefiele and wife, just like any other person, should answer to whatever they are suspected to have done. But the choreographed manner in which they are being handled attracts attention. It appears they are the problem of Nigeria. And if they are, it has taken Tinubu eight months and running to begin sorting out. Apparently, the knot that Emefiele tied would take Tinubu’s entire tenure to untie before actual governance starts.
Emefiele has been portrayed as a busybody while atop the apex bank, intervening here and there. But between Emefiele and this jaded-looking Cardoso, I’d rather have Emefiele. Imperfect as Emefiele was, at least, he had enthusiasm and worked where he worked. Cardoso is in his own world, apparently unmindful of the rest of us and doing what is not rubbing us on the right side.
It is said that those who fail to plan, plan to fail. Tinubu perfected his capture of the presidency with Buhari as the experimental pawn. He had eight years waiting and flexing his muscles to take it. If this was all he could dream up for Nigerians, then, it is such an anticlimax. And it is unconscionable that Nigerians should be subjected to this.
Ojukwu-Enendu, a former Editor of BusinessDay newspaper, writes from Lagos.
