In a surprising turn of events, President Joe Biden on Sunday, July 21st announced that he will not seek re-election in the forthcoming November 2024 presidential election. The announcement has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, dramatically altering the dynamics of the upcoming presidential election.
Biden’s withdrawal opens the field for a highly competitive Democratic primary. Many potential candidates who may have hesitated to challenge an incumbent are now expected to enter the race. The Democratic Party faces the urgent task of rallying around a new candidate to maintain momentum and present a united front against the Republican nominee.
Vice President Kamala Harris is widely seen as a natural successor. With her strong name recognition and existing support base, Harris is poised to be a formidable contender. Other prominent figures expected to join the race include California Governor Gavin Newsom, known for his progressive policies and national profile, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, whose previous presidential run demonstrated his broad appeal and political acumen.
Senator Elizabeth Warren, a leading voice for progressive Democrats, might also throw her hat into the ring, along with Senators Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, and Cory Booker. Each of these potential candidates brings unique strengths and a dedicated following, promising a vibrant and competitive primary season.
However, with the likes of President Biden, former President Barack Obama and his wife, senior Democrats leaders and party financiers, as well as leading US entertainers such as John Legend, Kerry Patty, Beyonce and other gender right groups routing for Kamala Harris, analysts say the current vice president is most likely to emerge as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate.
Is the US ready for a female president?
If Kamala Harris emerges as the Democratic nominee, it will raise a pivotal question for American voters: Is the nation ready for its first female president? While the US has yet to elect a woman to its highest office, the increasing number of women in leadership roles suggests a growing acceptance and readiness for such a historic milestone. Harris, as the first female vice president, has already broken significant ground, but she would need to overcome potential biases and stereotypes, proving her qualifications, experience, and leadership abilities on the national stage.
Similarly, in the 2016 US presidential election, then Democrats presidential candidate and former first lady, Hillary Clinton, pulled up a massive show and gained massive support from voters whereby she won the popular majority votes but narrowly lost to former President Trump in the Electoral College.
According to vote tallies from The Associated Press, Clinton amassed 65,844,610 votes across all 50 states and Washington D.C., 48.2 percent of all votes cast. Trump received 62,979,636 votes, 46.1 percent of all votes cast.
Clinton had 2,864,974 votes more than Trump, the largest popular vote margin of any losing presidential candidate in US history, according to the AP.
Trump won the presidency by clinching 304 electoral votes, well over the minimum 270 needed. Clinton won 227 electoral votes.
Clinton is the fifth presidential candidate in history to win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College.
Likely effect of Biden’s withdrawal on US voters’ decision
Many US citizens have welcomed President Biden’s pulling out of the presidential race and endorsing Vice President Harris, stating that Biden has put the American national interest first over his personal interest by stepping aside. In stepping aside, Biden heeded the advice of several Democrats leaders who had urged him to step aside due to his age.
Biden’s decision paved the way for Kamala Harris, who is likely to emerge as the Democratic candidate for the 2024 presidential election. This may likely have an effect on the decision of the US voters many of who now see Biden as a national hero.
On his part, former President Donald Trump has stated that Biden’s pulling out of the race would make it an easy ride for him to defeat Kamala Harris if she finally emerges as the Democrats candidate. Trump may be banking on the fact that Kamala Harris is not just a female candidate, but a black female candidate. He may be looking at his past victory over another female candidate, Hillary Clinton, in the US 2016 presidential election.
However, a poll conducted by Reuters/Ipos shows that Harris is leading Trump 44% to 42% in the US presidential race. That compares with a marginal two-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in the last poll before his Sunday exit from the race.
The new poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, followed both the Republican National Convention where Trump on Thursday formally accepted the nomination and Biden’s announcement on Sunday he was leaving the race and endorsing Harris.
Harris, whose campaign claims she has secured the Democrats nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll. This difference is within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by one percentage point in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.
While nationwide surveys provide key insights into American support for candidates, a few competitive states usually sway the US Electoral College. This body ultimately determines the winner of a presidential election.
A pollster with Trump’s campaign downplayed the rise in Harris’ support. They argued it was likely a temporary boost due to widespread media coverage of her new candidacy.
“That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while,” pollster Tony Fabrizio said in a memo circulated to reporters by Trump’s campaign.
Candidates often expect a bump after formally accepting their party’s nomination at stage-managed, televised conventions such as the one that Trump had last week. But the poll showed no sign of that.
Bump or not, the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll underscored the rationale for Biden dropping out of the race and for Harris replacing him on the ticket.
Meanwhile, some 56% of registered voters agreed with a statement that Harris, 59, was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same of Trump, 78.
Only 22% of voters assessed Biden that way.
Biden, 81, ended his reelection bid after a debate with Trump. During the debate, he often stammered and didn’t aggressively counter Trump’s attacks, which included falsehoods.
Some 80% of Democratic voters said they viewed Biden favourably, compared to 91% who said the same of Harris. Three quarters of Democratic voters said they agreed with a statement that the party and voters should get behind Harris now, with only a quarter saying multiple candidates should compete for the party’s nomination.
When voters in the survey were shown a hypothetical ballot that included independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, an advantage outside the margin of error. Kennedy, favoured by 8% of voters in the poll, has yet to qualify for the ballot in many states ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
Harris campaigned in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin on Tuesday. She won support from major party figures. Attention has since turned to who she will pick as her running mate, sparking widespread speculation.
Many respondents in the Reuters/Ipsos poll said they knew nothing about the Democrats seen as potential picks to join Harris’ ticket.
About one in four registered voters said they had never heard of U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a former Democratic presidential candidate who had the highest favourability rating – 37% – of the potential Harris running mates in the poll.
One in three had not heard of California Governor Gavin Newsom, with about the same share saying they looked on him favourably. Half of registered voters in the poll had never heard of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and two-thirds knew nothing of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
The poll, which was conducted online, surveyed 1,241 US adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters.
Biden’s decision to step aside could initially cause uncertainty among his supporters, but it also provides an opportunity for a fresh face to energize the Democratic base. Independent voters, who often play a crucial role in determining election outcomes, might see this as a chance to reassess their preferences. A compelling new candidate could attract these swing voters, potentially reshaping the electoral map.
Republican voters and candidates may view Biden’s withdrawal as a sign of instability within the Democratic Party, energizing their campaigns. However, a strong and unified Democratic candidate could counter this narrative, focusing on a cohesive and forward-looking vision for the future.
As the dust settles from Biden’s unexpected announcement, the 2024 presidential election promises to be one of the most dynamic and unpredictable in recent memory. Voters will closely scrutinize the new Democratic candidates and their platforms, while both parties adjust their strategies to address the evolving political landscape. The stage is set for an intense and closely contested race that will shape the future of the nation.
