Saturday, September 21, the day Edolites have been waiting for to head to the polls to elect a new governor to sit at the helm of affairs of the state at Osadebey Avenue, is already upon us.
In about 24 hours from now, eligible voters will file out to exercise their franchise in the 4,519 polling units scattered across the 192 wards and 18 local government areas of the state.
Data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) show that 2,629,025 voters registered to take part in the election, out of which 2,249,780, or 85.57%, have collected their PVCs, while 379,245 (14.43%) PVCs remain uncollected as of the close of the extended collection period on Sunday, 16th September 2024.
Also, INEC data show that local governments such as Ikpoba Okha, Oredo, Egor and Ovia North East, all in Edo South senatorial district, have the highest number of registered voters going into the election and this no doubt will have a great impact on swinging votes come Saturday.
REGISTERED VOTERS
Edo Central
According to INEC data, Edo Central has a total of 443,474 registered voters. A breakdown shows that Esan West has 133,067 registered voters; Esan North-East, 102,280; Esan South-East, 90,240; Esan Central, 63,338, and Igueben, 54,549.
Edo South
INEC data show that there are a total of 1,526,717registered voters in Edo South, distributed as follows: Ikpoba-Okha, 400,495; Oredo, 357,371; Egor, 242,226; Ovia North East, 177,106; Orhionmwon, 140,670, Ovia South West, 113,924, and Uhunmwonde, 94,925.
Edo North
There are 620,412 registered voters in Edo North Senatorial Diistrict, according to INEC. A breakdown shows that Akoko-Edo has 144,379 registered voters; Etsako West, 133,067; Owan East, 106,796; Etsako East, 102,454; Owan West, 73,732, and Etsako Central, 59,984.
SECURITY
Edo State is a very peculiar and dynamic state owing to its geographical location in Nigeria as a state that connects several states in the country. Edo State connects the Western and Eastern part of Nigeria, as well the Northern and Southern part of the country, thereby making it one of the states in Nigeria with the highest human and vehicular movements on a daily basis. This alone can pose a security threat to the state as most persons enter in and out of the state with porous borders bordering Delta State to the south, Delta State and Anambra State to the east, Kogi State to the north, and Ondo State to the west.
The lead-up to the governorship election has witnessed some security scare, ranging from the July 18 incident that took place at the Airport Road axis of the state capital Benin City that led to the death of a police officer, and the violent political attack that took place at Ososo in Akoko Edo. These incidents have placed the security going into this election in a spotlight.
Local governments such as Oredo, Ikpoba Okha, Egor, Ovia North East, Owan West, Etsako West, Etsako East, Akoko Edo, and Esan West are among the major hotspots that security agencies must deploy adequate manpower to so as to tackle any security threat that might arise on the election day so that lives and property, including voters, INEC officials and electoral materials are safe, according to political watchers.
Meanwhile, with the deployment of 35,000 policemen and 8,000 officers from other security agencies, as stated by the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Kayode Egbetokun, at the INEC election stakeholders meeting held last week in Benin City, Edolites are hoping that every threat will be dealt with if any arises on the election day.
Also, political leaders, stakeholders, residents and everyone in and outside Edo State will be banking on the assurance given by the INEC Chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu, and IGP Egbetokun that both the electoral umpire and the security agencies will be neutral in discharge of their duties. Any attempt by the security agencies and INEC officials to take sides in the election will trample on the credibility of the outcome of the election, pundits say.
CLOSE OF CAMPAIGNS
The window of public campaigns, as stipulated on INEC guidelines, closed on Thursday, 19th September 2024. All eyes have now shifted to tomorrow’s election.
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and its candidate, Dr Asue Ighodalo, as well the All Progressive Congress (APC) and its candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo, both held their grand finale rally on Saturday, 14th September, in different locations in Benin City, while the Labour Party and its candidate, Olumide Akpata, held a grand finale rally on Wednesday, September 18th, in Benin City.
The final rallies of the three dominant parties going into the election saw bigwigs and leaders of the parties across the country storming Edo State to drum support for their candidates ahead of Saturday’s election.
The ruling PDP in the state paraded party bigwigs such as former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, Acting National Chairman of the party, Amb. Umar Damagun, Governor Godwin Obaseki and other governors of the party from other states of the federation, as well as party leaders from the state and the three senatorial districts.
Similarly, the APC paraded party leaders such as the Vice President, Kashim Shetimma, National Chairman of the party, Umar Ganduje, governors under the party from various states, state party leaders led by Senator Adams Oshiomhole, among others.
Also, the Labour Party leaders were not left out in drumming support for Akpata, with the likes of the presidential candidate of the party in the 2023 general election, Peter Obi, Abia State Governor, Alex Otti, Senators and Reps members of the party, as well as state leaders of the party, in attendance.
In the vein, fast rising candidates going into the election, such as the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Engr. Derek Izedonmwen, and the candidate of the People’s Redemption Party (PRP), Patience Ndidi Ofure Key, have also run successful campaigns.
FACTORS TO WATCH OUT FOR
There are several factors to watch out for that may shape the voting attitude of the electorate and therefore decide the winner of the election.
Edo Central
Political analysts have predicted that Edo Central senatorial district, which has five local government areas, namely, Esan West, Esan North East, Esan South East, Esan Central and Igueben, will be a close contest for the ruling PDP and the main opposition APC, whose candidates, Ighodalo and Okpebholo, hail from the senatorial district.
Going into the election, Edo Central has enjoyed the favour of the ruling PDP and the main opposition APC, as well as major stakeholders and residents of the state who agreed that, for the sake of equity and fairness, power should be given to the Esan people who occupy Edo Central. Analysts say Edo Central votes will be closely split between the PDP and APC, with Labour Party maybe getting a fraction of the votes.
Edo North
Edo North Senatorial district, which has six local governments – Akoko Edo, Etsako East, Etsako West, Etsako Central, Owan West and Owan East – will be a key factor in deciding the outcome of Saturday’s election.
The zone, which has the second highest voting capacity according to data from previous elections, will also play a major role in tomorrow’s election.
The zone parades political leaders such as former governor Adams Oshiomhole, who is the senator representing the zone, incumbent deputy governor, Marvelous Godwins Omobayo, the Speaker of Edo State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon Blessing Agbebaku, former deputy governor and Chief of Staff to former President Goodluck Jonathan, Chief Mike Ogiadomhe, former deputy governor, Philip Shaibu, former Speaker, Kabiru Adjoto, Majority Leader of the House of Reps, Julius Ihonvbere, Rep member Peter Akpatason, Vice Chairman South South of PDP, Chief Dan Orbih, Obaseki’s former Chief of Staff, Taiwo Akerele, among others.
In Akoko Edo where Deputy Governor Omobayo hails from, which has seen some pockets of violence going into the election, might swing in favour of the PDP following with popularity of the deputy governor. Also, Owan West where the Speaker of Edo State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon Blessing Agbebaku, hails from may also go the way of the PDP because of the large influence of the Speaker. It was also the only local government area in Edo North won by PDP in the 2020 governorship election.
Etsako, which parades the likes of Oshiomhole and Shaibu, may swing in favour of APC because of the grip Oshiomhole has in those areas and with Shaibu joining forces with him, it might be difficult for any political party other than the APC to win in the three Etsako local government areas. Although the deputy governorship candidate of the Labour Party, Asamah Kadiri, SAN, hails from Etsako, he’s not likely to have much effect.
Generally in Edo North, APC might have a slim edge over PDP, Labour Party and others.
Edo South
Here comes Edo South dominated by the Binis. The zone, which has seven local governments and the highest voting population in Edo State, has been regarded as the swing zone in this Saturday’s election.
Edo South has seven local government areas – Oredo, Ikpoba Okha, Egor, Ovia North East, Ovia South West, Uhunwonde and Orhiomwon.
Data from INEC over the years has placed Oredo, Ikpoba Okha, Egor and Ovia North East as the local governments that have the highest number of registered voters and produce the highest figure of results in the state. These factors have made these local governments the swing areas going into the election because it’s on record that whoever wins the major local governments in Edo South has always emerged governor of the state.
Undoubtedly, Edo South will be the battleground going into Saturday’s election with the three major parties having a large number of followers there.
Several bigwigs from Edo South across the three major political parties are Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki, who hails from Oredo; deputy governorship candidate of the PDP, Osarodion Ogie, who hails from Ikpoba Okha; Labour Party candidate, Olumide Akpata, who hails from Oredo; deputy governorship candidate of APC, Hon Dennis Idahosa, who hails from Ovia North East.
Others are Chief of Staff to Edo State government, Osaigbovo Iyoha; Director General of PDP Campaign Organisation, Matthew Iduoriyekemwen; his APC counterpart, Sen. Matthew Uroghide; the Esama of Benin, Chief Gabriel Igbinedion; his son and former governor, Lucky Igbinedion; former governor of the state, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun; APC stalwart and two-time governorship candidate, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu; former deputy governors, Lucky Imasuen and Dr Pius Odubu; Charles Idahosa; Major General Charles Airhivabere (retd.); Patrick Aisoweren; Hon Patrick Obahiagbon; Hon Samson Osagie; Saturday Uwalekue; Sen. Roland Owie; Owere Dickson Imasogie; EJ Agbonayinma; Nosa Adams; Tony Adun (Kabaka); Timothy Osadolor; Osakpamwan Eriyo; Martins Osakue, and several other heavyweights.
If one is to go by the 2020 governorship election and the 2023 general election, Edo South can easily be adjudged as a battle between the PDP and the Labour Party. But with the Binis and residents of Edo South who believe in justice, equity and fairness that the next governor to take over from Governor Obaseki (who hails from Oredo in Edo South) should come from Edo Central, the candidate of the Labour Party, Olumide Akpata (who is also from Oredo) may not be getting the backing of the zone, thereby making PDP and its candidate, Asue Ighodalo, the favourite to clinch victory in Edo South.
FINALLY…
As the people of state go out to vote on Saturday, analysts say INEC should use this Edo governorship election to redeem its already dented image and make sure the issues that plagued the 2023 general election do not repeat themselves.
They also urge the police and other security agencies to stick to their mandate, which is to provide security and protect everyone going out to exercise their franchise on Saturday irrespective of political party. The security agencies must remain neutral and not take sides with any political party and candidate, as has been assured by the IGP, Kayode Egbetokun.
