Two major research papers published in the first quarter of 2026 have revealed results that are actually changing the way people, analysts, and even bettors view sports prediction. The first research paper is by the Sports Forecasting Research Consortium on the accuracy of the forecasts in the major sports sector over the last three years up to December 2025. The major conclusion of the research is that the accuracy of the sports betting forecasts has improved in all the major sports sectors. However, the improvement is not consistent in all the sports sectors. The improvement in the accuracy of the forecasts is more consistent in the pre-match forecasts made within six hours of the match kickoffs than in the forecasts made 48 hours or more before the match kickoffs.
The second research paper was on the accuracy of the forecasts in the basketball sector. The research revealed that the online basketball betting forecasts had improved in terms of efficiency over the last two years. This meant that the difference between the forecast models and the actual bookie odds had narrowed considerably. In 2023, there were significant differences between the forecast models and bookie odds in 31% of the total matches. However, over the last two years, this figure has come down to 19%. According to the 2026 sports analytics market report published by Statista, the total expenditure on sports forecasting tools and data services reached $2.8 billion globally in 2026, an increase of 22% from 2024.
What the Numbers Show About Forecast Improvement
The Sports Forecasting Research Consortium is the biggest study into the accuracy of forecasts that have been released so far in 2026, where the study analyzed 180,000 predictions that were made on football, basketball, tennis, rugby, cricket, esports, and American football.
The table below shows the forecast improvement for the six hours prior to a match for all the different sports covered in the study between 2023 and 2025:
| Sport | Forecast Accuracy 2023 | Forecast Accuracy 2025 | Total Improvement |
| Basketball | 64% | 71% | +7% |
| Esports | 58% | 65% | +7% |
| Tennis | 69% | 74% | +5% |
| American Football | 61% | 66% | +5% |
| Football (Soccer) | 53% | 56% | +3% |
Basketball has shown the biggest improvement in forecast accuracy for all the different sports covered in the study. Basketball has improved by seven percent over two years. The study showed that this was due to injury and rest data being available in the pre-match period, which directly influences forecast models. The sport that is proving the hardest to forecast is football, which has improved by only three percent. This was due to the low-scoring nature of the sport, which means that random elements have a bigger effect on the outcome.
What This Means for How Bettors Use Forecasts
The obvious consequence for forecast models and bettors is that it makes waiting for a forecast update worth it. The difference between the latest forecast update and the forecast produced 48 hours earlier has been the largest in the last five years. Bettors who use the forecast information as something to glance at as a curiosity before making a bet are missing the latest information.
The study established the situations in which the waiting for the new forecast updates would result in the most improvement in the forecast accuracy:
- Basketball games in which the updates for the rest day are available within 12 hours of the tip-off
- Football matches in which the injury updates are available through official sources on the day of the match
- Tennis matches in which the weather conditions are available closer to the scheduled start of the match
- Esports matches in which the updates for the roster are available within hours of the actual match taking place
- Any match in which there is an important selection call that is likely to go down to the wire
The situations are all the same in the sense that the closer you are to the actual match, the better your view of the available information will likely be. The forecast models that have access to the latest available information will always perform better than those without. The improvements will always be more noticeable in the sports in which the selection and condition can vary significantly from match to match.
Responsible Betting With Forecast Tools
However, even though better forecasts can be extremely useful in sport, it does not eliminate any of the inherent uncertainty of the sport itself. Indeed, it never could. Even in the very best of the available forecasts in this study, i.e., the sport of tennis at 74%, there is one in every four predictions that is wrong.
However, the use of forecast tools as a means of making more informed, and hence more enjoyable, decisions is the correct use of forecast tools. Ensuring that you set your budget before you start your session, and sticking to it no matter how good the forecast is likely to be, is what will keep your betting sustainable in the long term. The majority of the platforms allow you to set your limits in your own account settings, and the use of the tools from the very beginning of your registration is what will keep things fun in the long term.
