Nigerians are no longer under any illusion that all is not well with the country’s economy. A simple reality check over the yuletide period revealed the extent of damage wrought on both the national and personal finances by corruption. Over the same period, they banished every vestige of doubt held prior as virtually every family had to do away with those things previously taken for granted. Right now, everyone is beginning to quietly align with the call by President Mohammadu Buhari that it has become imperative for all to do away with unnecessary things with the hope that generally the attitude will help engineer the re-birth of a new national consciousness. Ominously however, indications suggest that as we embark on the process, tougher times are ahead and unless all stakeholders work conscientiously towards achieving the goal, it may turn out to be a mirage.
Already, the president has taken some far reaching decisions towards achieving the goal. Among others, he upped the ante in the war against corruption by ensuring that identified suspects are not only being arraigned before courts of competent jurisdiction and having sleepless nights, he has also shown an uncommon determination in seeing the cases to their logical conclusions. In addition, he is pursuing the implementation of the single treasury regime, otherwise referred to as the TSA, with an uncommon zeal. Under the proposed policy, finances of the three arms of government, their agencies and parastatals, including MDAs, are to be harmonized in a way that mandates each to draw and dispense approved budget from one single account.
Unfortunately, the policy seems to be drawing flaks and bricks as controversies continue to dog its path due mainly to the perception in some stakeholders’ quarters that submitting to it would amount to subsuming individual independence under the executive. At least, this is the position of the national assembly. However, while one cannot waive off the need for the independence of the three arms of government as guaranteed by our statutes, care must be taken to avoid actions that could possibly undermine the effectiveness of policies designed to checkmate the continuous negative slide of the economy. There is therefore the need for both the executive and other arms to harmonise their positions on how best to sort out the TSA policy, which appears needful at this critical point of our national life.
Beyond the TSA, the president also harped on the need for all stakeholders to do away with every manner of profligacy. In particular, everyone is expected to tighten the belt a little more. However, it appears that only the masses are being compelled to tighten their belts given the fact that the national assembly seems bent on the purchase of hundreds of exotic vehicles for its members despite concerns about the nation’s worsening economic woes. That may have been the reason the president decided to publicly upbraid the decision during his maiden media chat. While not supporting the president over the language he employed in delivering his messages mainly because he may end up creating more obstacles that could work against his desire to set the country on the path to recovery, there is the overriding need to make every stakeholder align with his administration’s set goals.
There is no justification whatsoever in making the belt-tightening sacrifice a selective one. It is a morally reprehensible double standard aggravated further by numbing reports of staggering allowances accruing to certain other groups. All stakeholders, the executive, legislature, judiciary and every Nigerian on the street, must be involved and must avoid actions that seem to accentuate profligacy. It is only when thus applied that it will not become an attempt to impoverish the people or injure their sense of belonging.
Yet, there are more challenges ahead. At the presentation of the budget by the president on December 22nd 2015, the benchmark was $40 per barrel. But even before the president’s ink had dried up on the signature column, the price of oil in the international market had slipped below $37 and is still dropping as we speak. On papers, the country is already fighting a lost battle unless the administration will go beyond dependence on the sale of oil to fund the budget. While the practicality of what it intends doing is a subject for further discussions, it needs not be over emphasized that whatever has to be done will not be easy at all.
Beyond the yoyo nature of global oil price, another disturbing fact came to the fore during the budget presentation. Nigerians were told that 20 per cent of the total budget would go into servicing of foreign debts. The problem is that there may not be too much to worry about if the price of oil rises or a worse stabilises where it is presently. However, with the free fall, it may be Herculean sourcing the funds to meet the country’s obligations. More seriously, the Naira is already going through serious turbulence. Though the president has so far resisted attempts to further devalue it, there is the possibility that his resistance may not last.
Hopes are still high though that the country may be able to shake itself lose given the commitment of the administration. This is evident in the manner it has demonstrated its willingness to block all leakages and deal death blows on corruption, the country’s biggest bane. If the words of Christine Largarde, International Monetary Fund, IMF, boss, that Nigeria does not need any of its loan given the seriousness, commitment and direction of the Buhari administration, is anything to hold on, we may truly have reasons not to despair. Unfortunately however, that is merely academic for now because the outcome is still subject to the topsy-turvy turns of other unpredictable variables, including those outside the administration or country’s control.
One of them is the variables is that the budget is predicated on the assumption that oil will not crash below the country’s $40 benchmark. Unfortunately, even before the president ended the presentation before the national assembly, oil price dipped below the benchmark, raising the fear that in addition to the possibility of a more weakened Naira, the 20 per cent allocation for servicing foreign debts may turn out to be too much. So, give or take, the country is more troubles than we can imagine. That is why all stake holders must be on the same page as the battle to curtail the ravaging effects of the nation’s downhill economy bites harder.
