Residents of South-South geopolitical zone in Nigeria eagerly await the arrival of 2023, just like their counterparts in other geopolitical zones of the country. As usual of a national newspaper like the Nigerian Observer, a review of the outgoing year is necessary in order to adequately prepare for the new year.
We shall review the Nigerian economy vis a vis the south-south geopolitical zone, in terms of the GDP growth rate, inflation, unemployment, education, environment, politics, among others.
The Nigerian economy grew by 3.11 percent in real terms at the end of the first quarter of 2022. The real growth rate rose to 3.54 percent at the end of the second quarter, but moderated to 2.25 percent by the end of the third quarter of 2022.
In the nine months ended September 2022, agriculture contributed 29.67 percent to GDP, 18.37 percent contribution from industries, while services contributed 51.96 percent to GDP. Compared to their contributions at the end of the third quarter of 2021, agriculture was responsible for 29.94 percent, 20.41 percent from industries, and 51,96 percent from services.
As the south-south geopolitical zone is the crude oil producing region of Nigeria, it is also necessary to look at the contribution of the oil and gas sector to Nigeria’s GDP. As of September 2022, the nation’s oil and gas sector contributed just 5.66 percent to Nigeria’s GDP. Its contribution was 6.33 percent by June 2022, and 6.63 percent by March of this year.
In the comparable periods of 2021, oil and gas sector contributed 7.49 percent to Nigeria’s GDP while non-oil contributed 92.51 percent during the same period as of September 2021. The gradual reduction of crude oil contribution to GDP from 7.49 percent in September 2021 to just 5.66 percent by September 2022 showed the extent of slowdown in economic activities in the south-south geopolitical zone.
Specifically, economic activities within the petroleum and natural gas subsector declined by as much as 22.67 percent. In September 2021, the decline in economic activities in the petroleum and natural gas sub sector was 10.73 percent.
Oil refining sub sector witnessed a significant downturn in economic activities by as much as 44.70 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2022. As of September 2021, the decline in sectoral economic activities in the nation’s oil refining sub sector was 47.83 percent.
Another sub sector which is the mainstay of the south-south geopolitical zone is agriculture. Across the nation, agriculture sector grew by 1.34 percent in real terms by the end of the third quarter of 2022. In September 2021, real growth in this sector was 1.22 percent.
Across all the sub sectors in the agriculture sector, real growth was positive across of all them. Crop production recorded a 1.33 percent real growth rate; livestock grew by 1.55 percent; forestry witnessed a 2.19 percent real growth, while fishing saw its activities grow by 0.36 percent in real terms. As of September 2021, crop production grew by 1.33 percent; livestock grew by 0.12 percent; forestry grew by 1.98 percent, while fishing was the only exception as economic activities in this sector fell by 3.97 percent in real terms.
Inflation
Inflation erodes the purchasing power of consumers as it diminishes the market value of workers’ disposable incomes. As of November 2022, which is the latest figure from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 21.47 percent year on year. On the other hand, food inflation was much higher at 24.13 percent, which established the fact that food inflation is a major source of inflationary pressure in Nigeria.
But how does inflation pan out in the south-south? Headline inflation in Akwa Ibom State was 23.16 percent in November 2022 while food inflation was 25.98 percent. In Bayelsa, headline inflation was 24.34 percent while food inflation was 27.13 percent.
Cross River’s headline inflation was 19.17 percent as against food inflation of 24.89 percent in November 2022. Delta State’s headline inflation was 21.34 percent while food inflation was 24.72 percent in November 2022.
Edo State’s headline inflation was 21.59 percent compared with its food inflation that was 26.43 percent. Rivers State’s headline inflation was 24.45 percent as against its food inflation of 26.28 percent in November 2022.
Consequently, Cross River State had the least headline inflation in November 2022, followed by Delta, Edo, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa while Rivers had the highest headline inflation during the reviewed period.
In terms of food inflation, Delta State had the least food inflation rate in November 2022. It was followed by Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Edo and Bayelsa states.
Multidimensional poverty
The National Bureau of Statistics in the outgoing year released a jointly sponsored report with some global development finance institutions on multidimensional poverty to the effect that 62.9 percent of the Nigerian people, translating to 133 million Nigerians, are multidimensionally poor. The nation has a multidimensional poverty index (MPI) of 0.257 which implies that poor Nigerians experience a quarter of all possible deprivations.
The south-south geopolitical zone has an MPI of 0.250, suggesting that the poor people in the region experience 25% or a quarter of all possible deprivations. Nigeria’s child MPI is 0.322, which indicates that children from poor homes experience 32.2 % of all possible deprivations. South-south MPI is 0.302, as this implies that children from poor homes in the south-south geopolitical zones experience 30.2% of all possible deprivations, slightly lower than the national average of 32.2%.
On a state by state basis, Edo State has the least multidimensional poverty index in the south-south geopolitical zone with MPI at 0.126 implying that the poor people in that state experience 12.6% of all possible deprivations.
It is followed by Delta with an MPI of 17.3% which means the poor in that state experience 17.3% of all possible deprivation. Rivers State’s is 24.1% MPI and is among the south-south states whose MPI are lower than the national MPI of 0.257.
However, Akwa Ibom State has an MPI of 29.3%; it is 29.9% in Cross River while that of Bayelsa is 40.1%, indicating that all the three aforementioned states have MPI above the national MPI.
Many metrics were used in arriving at the MPI figure for each state in Nigeria. One of these measures is “Deprivation in education attainment for people aged 10 years and above who have not completed six years of schooling.” Using this metric to rate states in the south-south geopolitical zone, 74% of the people in Akwa Ibom are not deprived of six years of schooling. It is 62% in Bayelsa; 64% n Cross River; 59 percent in Delta; 77 percent in Edo, and 59% in Rivers State.
Invariably, Edo State has the least number of individuals who were denied six years of schooling among the states in the sub region.
One of the factors that might contributed to this feat is the EdoBEST Programme which the state government introduced to raise the quality of educational services provided by the state’s public primary and secondary schools. The programme has received commendation from within and outside the country, and it has even been recommended to states such as Lagos and Kwara.
Another metric is deprivation in school attendance for school-aged children. In Akwa Ibom State, 82% of the school-aged children are not derived of school attendance. It is 68% in Bayelsa; 64% in Cross River; 62 percent in Delta; 89% in Edo, and 79% in Rivers State.
In terms of distribution of households deprived of sanitary facilities, only 30% of households in Akwa Ibom State are not deprived; 5% of households in Bayelsa are not deprived; 18% of households n Cross River are not deprived; 27% of households in Delta are not deprived; 58% of households in Edo are not deprived, while only 23% of households in Rivers State are not deprived.
Clean water is an essential requirement in every human society. Using this indicator, that is, the distribution of households by deprivation in access to clean drinking water in the south-south geopolitical zone, 36% of households in Akwa Ibom are not deprived of clean drinking water. It is 22% in Bayelsa; 19% in Cross River; 37% in Delta; 68% in Edo, while it is 42% in Rivers State.
Using the distribution of households by depravation in cooking fuel, all the states in the south-south zone are deprived. 99% of households in Akwa Ibom are deprived of cooking fuel. According to NBS, 100% of households in Bayelsa are deprived of cooking fuel. It is 99% each in Cross River and Delta states.
In Edo State, 96% of households are deprived of cooking fuel while 97% of households in Rivers are equally deprived of cooking fuel.
Domestic debt
The domestic debt of the south-south geopolitical zone rose by 16.9% from N988.05 billion in December 2021 to N1.16 trillion as of September 2022, according to the data obtained from the Debt Management Office (DMO). The highest increase in domestic debt was in Delta State whose local debt rose by 76.3% to N272.61 billon as of September 2022, from N154 billon as of December 2021.
Edo State’s domestic debt increased by 40.7% to N110.9 billion as of September 2022, from N78.89 billion as of December 2021. Cross River State’s domestic debt rose by 9.6% from N159.8 billion as of December 2021 to N175.1 billion as of September 2022.
Akwa Ibom State’s domestic debt increased by 2.3 percent to N219.6 billion as of September 2022, up from N214.6 billon in December 2021.
River State’s domestic debt remained unchanged at N225.5 billion, meaning that the state did not source loans from the domestic market in the first nine months of 2022.
On the contrary, Bayelsa State paid off part of its domestic loan which fell by 2.2% to N151.1 billion as of September 2022 compared to N154.6 billion as of December 2021.
External debt
The total external debt stock of all the states in the south-south geopolitical zone fell by 9.3% between December 2021 and June 2022 except that of Akwa Ibom state which increased slightly by 1.2%, according to DMO data. From $873.35 million as of December 2021, the regional external debt stood at $791.76 million by June 2022, indicating five states collectively paid $82.1 million while Akwa Ibom State borrowed $537,789.01 loan during the period.
In terms of external loan repayments, Bayelsa State paid $1.22 million; Cross River paid $63.95 million; Delta State paid $1.36 million; Edo State paid $7.98 million while Rivers paid $7.6 million.
Politics-PDP fate hangs in the balance
The south-south geopolitical zone has featured prominently in Nigeria’s political scene in 2022 due partly to the different roles played by the governor of Delta State, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa who is now the vice presidential candidate of the Peoples’ Democratic Party(PDP), and Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wke, who is yet to resolve the dispute that emanated after the party’s presidential primary that produced Atiku Abubakar.
Currently, while Senator Okowa is mobilizing the electorate in the region for the PDP so that the party can emerge victorious at the 2023 general elections, governor Wike has openly expressed his disapproval towards the manner at which the party handled the post primary crisis.
One of the conditions given by the Wike camp is for the current chairman of PDP, Iyorchia Ayu to resign which will pave the way for a southern politician to emerge, thereby ensuring fair distribution of posts among the geopolitical zones especially since the party’s presidential candidate is from the northern part of the country.
A lot of brinkmanship is ongoing in Nigeria’s political space as the general elections approach. The resolution will go a long way to affect the party’s fortune at the poll. Undoubtedly, the PDP cannot afford to lose Rivers State, especially now that many candidates are making inroads into the party’s traditional base of south-south.
Emergence of Peter Obi of Labour Party could ruffle region’s feathers
Many opinion polls have given Peter Obi of Labour Party strong showing in the forthcoming presidential elections. Specifically, Obi is expected to win Edo and Cross River states according to recent forecasts by SBM Intelligence. The south-south states with the highest votes are Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom, and Edo. Should the prediction come to pass, this could affect the performance of PDP which has traditionally controlled the region.
