…fighting over escape routes, access to arms
As the in-fighting between armed insurgent groups, the Islamic State West Africa (ISWAP) and Boko Haram escalates in and around Nigerian territory in recent weeks, informed sources say the assumption that the skirmishes are rooted in rivalry between both groups is wrong and misleading.
Our sources say the fighting between ISWAP and Boko Haram is actually in preparation for a barrage of escalated and sustained attacks from the Nigerian military, against both groups, which typically occurs every time there is a change of government at Federal level.
It is said that the ongoing fighting between ISWAP and Boko Haram is specifically a contest for territory close to the borders between Nigeria, Niger Republic, Cameroun and Chad, from which they can make quick escapes into foreign territory in the face of major onslaughts from the Nigerian military.
The insurgents are also keen to hold borderline territory’s because from there, they they are able to access arms and ammunition which flow in from a black market in Libya.
It is anticipated that these heavy military engagements against the insurgency will kick-off with renewed verve, anytime from the second half of June after the handing over of government in Nigeria to a new administration on June 12.
Following the Presidential elections which held in Nigeria in February this year (2023) a new government administration at the Presidential will be sworn in on May 29 while the official handing over will take place on June 12.
Our sources say that since the emergence of the Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgency in 2002 one of the first actions undertaken by incoming administrations into power in Nigeria, is to step up the fight against the insurgency with a view to re-establishing peace in the land and claiming back sovereign space overrun by the insurgents.
New government administrations also, usually make huge outlays of cash for the acquisition and upgrading of armament for the fight against the insurgency soon after coming into power.
It will be recalled that when President Muhammadu Buhari came into power in 2015 one of the first things he did was to refocus the military, acquire armament and renew cooperation with strategic neighbouring states for a crackdown against the insurgency.
Buhari also moved Nigeria’s Defence Command Centre against the insurgency to Maiduguri in Borno State, the birthplace of Boko Haram, and started pushing for the rapid deployment of a new, regional military force to combat the jihadi sects.
President Goodluck Jonathan who governed before Buhari , took some similar steps.
The Nigerian Observer reported on Monday April 12, that a renewed spate of infighting between Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and a stepped up onslaught by the Nigerian military against armed militant groups was bringing about a significant degrading of the insurgency in Northern-Eastern Nigeria and environs.
The report stated that the development was further increasing the number of insurgents surrendering to the Nigerian military and freeing up captive territory for a return to normal life, proper governance and productive economic activity.
We are further informed however, that both insurgency groups have been fighting for the control of strategic spaces in the north-east of Nigeria and environs, which are relatively easy to defend and from which they can easily slip across state borders into foreign territory, should they come under expected heavy attacks from the Nigerian military.
It is said that the insurgents are also fighting to be near their armories which are believed to mostly be inside of or close to the border areas of Niger Republic, Cameroun, Nigeria, Chad and Benin Republic.
They are also taking advantage of the erosion in intensity of the defence pact existing between Nigeria, Niger Republic, Cameroun, Chad and Benin Republic.
The pact is said to have lost steam since April 2021 following the death President Idris Deby of Chad in who was its prime motivator and arrowhead.
In the past weeks, Boko Haram insurgents were dislodged from their hideouts in Zamfara State, following bombardment by the military. They reportedly abducted upwards of 60 children, farmers and random others in an escape bid.
