Nigeria’s exports to Francophone West African countries worth over N160 billion are under threat following the closure of the nation’s borders with Niger Republic and the possibility of employing military options to resolve the political crisis in that country, although the general opinion is against the use of military option.
Niger Republic is the seventh largest producer of uranium in the world. According to Statista, the country produced 2,020 metric tons of uranium in 2022 of which France is the major buyer of the mineral just as the mineral costs about $130/kg. The conflict in Niger has forced some Western nations to cut off their aid to the country, and the list includes France, the Netherlands, USA, as well as the European Union.
It should be recalled that 10-member states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Togo, Liberia, Ghana, Gambia, Cote d’ Ivoire, Cape Verde, Benin Republic and Senegal agreed that the military option is not off the table in the resolution of the impasse in Niger Republic.
Sanctions imposed on Niger Republic include the suspension of all commercial transactions with the country, its regional bank’s assets are frozen with the assets of the state and enterprises in commercial banks just as financial assistance with regional banks is also suspended.
Already, Nigeria had announced the closure of its borders with Niger Republic, thus putting over N160 billion worth exports to some Francophone West African countries in jeopardy, findings and the analysis of foreign trade data by the Nigerian Observer have revealed.
The move by ECOWAS further weakens the recently signed African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, which is meant to bolster intra African trade. For instance, Nigeria’s trade with the rest of Africa amounted to 2 percent in the first quarter of 2022; 3.8 percent in Q2’2022; 2.5 percent in Q3’2022, and 3.4 percent in Q4’2022.
In 2022, Nigerian exporters sold goods such as briquettes, ovoids and similar solid fuels manufactured from coal, cigarettes containing tobacco, vessels and other floating structures for breaking up, and passenger cruise ships, excursion boats mechanically propelled as well as floating or submersible drilling or production platforms, and building materials excluding white cement to Francophone West African countries, including those being ruled by military juntas.
The destinations include Burkina Faso, Niger Republic, Ivory Coast, Togo, Guinea and Benin Republic. The figure will be higher if another Francophone country, Cameroon decides to join the fray in solidarity with Niger Republic. In 2022, Nigeria exported cigarettes, vessels and other floating structures, and passenger cruise ships to Cameroon.
The military governments in Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali have all expressed solidarity with the new government in Niger Republic, even as they went as far as saying that an attack on Niger Republic by ECOWAS force would amount to a declaration of war on them, thus increasing the level of escalation that will erupt within the sub region, should there be any military confrontation with Niger Republic, spearheaded by Nigeria, the region’s strongest military bloc.
Based on Nigeria’s export data in 2022, the products exported to the Francophone West African states were among the top 15 most exported goods, our analysis showed. During the first quarter of last year, floating or submersible drilling or production platforms were the fifth most exported item, accounting for 1.27 percent of the total exports in that quarter.
Vessels and other floating structures for breaking were the ninth most exported product, accounting for 0.22 percent of Nigeria’s total export value. Cigarettes containing tobacco accounted for 0.15 percent of the country’s export value to be the 15th most exported product during the first quarter of 2022.
Between April and June 2022, cigarettes containing tobacco were the 11th most exported products, while other building materials excluding white cement were the 15th most exported products, accounting for 0.18 percent and 0.11 percent of the total export value in that quarter, respectively.
Between July and September 2022, cigarettes containing tobacco and vessels and other floating structures for break were the eighth and 13th most exported items from the country, while floating or submersible drilling or production platforms, cigarettes containing tobacco, and passenger cruise ships, excursion boats mechanically propelled, were the 4th, 9th and 11th most exported items from Nigeria to the aforementioned countries in the last quarter of 2022.
Our analysis further showed that the foreign subsidiaries of the Dangote Group and tier-one banks in Nigeria will also be affected. Dangote Cement owns 95 percent stake in Dangote Cement Chad S.A.; Dangote Cement Mali S.A, and Dangote Cement Burkina Faso.
