What is now uppermost in the minds of political gladiators is about winning the forth coming gubernatorial contest in Edo State. At least nine different permutations stare them on their faces. Which combination is most favoured
The possible permutations are laid bare in the following table:
G ES ES ES EC EC EC EN EN EN
R EC EN ES ES EN EC ES EC EN
Key:
G=Governorship candidate
R=Running mate to G
ES=Edo South
EN=Edo North
EC=Edo Central
What factors determine the direction of movement of voters to the teams? One team is chosen in preference to another for many reasons. Among them are:
• Foreign exchange rate, unemployment rate, per capita income, per capita consumption of electricity, infant mortality rate, availability, accessibility and affordability of clean potable water, level of environmental cleanliness, open defecation index and such like that are universally accepted as objective measures of standard of living. But these factors are of little or no concern at all to an average voter in Edo State. In my view, this is unfortunate.
What factors then determine their preferences?
There is no simple answer to this. But I shall attempt explanations of the four most prominent ones, namely:
a. The prevailing belief that leadership, in this case governorship position, should be spread as equitably as we can. When this is done rightly it promotes unity and cooperation among the people.
b. Ability to spread goodwill, materially and non-materially to political stalwarts. They have the ears of members and command large followership. Many are traditional rulers, influential founders and owners of spiritual homes, eminent professionals and very successful industrialists and business persons. Prominent singers and sport persons belong to this group. You can only ignore these persons to your own peril.
c. Religion: It is difficult for an average electorate to understand a combination of one Muslim to another Muslim or a Christian to another Christian in a political contest within a multi religious setting like Edo State. The way the electorate voted in the last presidential election is a telltale sign.
d. Tribe: Every tribe wants the highest position for their leaders. I believe this is inherent in the nature of all human species. No one can dispute the influence it exerts on elections even in the first world (countries).
Given these factors what is the most likely winning team? Although it is not enshrined in Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution, there appears to be unwritten/undiscussed agreement that rotational leadership is a worthwhile goal. At the moment, a large section of Edo State believes it is the turn of Edo Central to produce a governor (expressed as EC/ES or EC/EN combination). However, this arrangement may face formidable challenge from a party that fields a team of Edo South and Edo North (note that Edo South is the first largest population centre and Edo North the second).
This piece is about playing the game of possibilities; it is possible for any group to win. The final choice is for Edo electorate to determine.
Edogun, a teacher and writer, writes from Benin City
