The nationwide protests that erupted across Nigeria on August 1, 2024, have quickly evolved from a public outcry over economic hardship into a significant political challenge for President Bola Tinubu’s administration. As inflation skyrockets and the cost of living becomes increasingly unbearable for millions of Nigerians, the protests have exposed deep-seated frustrations with the government’s economic policies and broader governance issues.
Despite the government’s attempt to ease tensions by raising the national minimum wage to ₦70,000, the move has been widely criticized as insufficient and has failed to address the underlying economic problems. For many Nigerians, the wage increase has been dwarfed by the rapid inflation, which has seen food prices and other essential commodities soar to unprecedented levels. This disconnect between government action and public needs has fuelled a broader political crisis.
Political implications
Politically, the protests are seen as a direct challenge to President Tinubu’s leadership, testing his ability to manage the country’s economic woes and maintain public trust. The movement has drawn comparisons to the #EndSARS protests of 2020, which similarly began as a focused outcry but quickly morphed into a broader critique of government corruption and inefficiency.
Tinubu, who came into office with significant expectations, now faces mounting pressure not just to deliver on his economic promises but also to demonstrate political acumen in navigating this unrest. His administration’s response so far—calling for restraint, holding emergency meetings with ministers, and engaging in dialogue with labour unions—reflects an attempt to contain the situation without resorting to force. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains in question as the protests continue to gain momentum.
The political implications of the protests are far-reaching. They have reignited debates about the role of the government in managing the economy, the effectiveness of Tinubu’s leadership, and the potential for political instability if public discontent is not adequately addressed. Opposition parties are likely to seize on the unrest as evidence of the administration’s failures, potentially using it as a platform to galvanize support ahead of future elections.
Implications for Nigeria’s sovereignty
The protest has also put Nigeria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the spotlight following the display of the Russian flag by the protesters in some northern states.
With the growing Russian influence in some coup-infested West African countries – Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger Republic – such spillover can creep into Nigeria and scuttle the country’s democracy.
On August 5, the Federal Government through the Defence Headquarters said those flying the Russian flag on Nigerian soil committed a treasonable offence and would be treated as such.
The Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Christopher Musa, who addressed journalists in Abuja after a Security Council meeting with President Bola Tinubu cautioned those flying the Russian flag to desist.
“All of us have seen where foreign flags have been flown within the sovereignty of Nigeria, and that is totally unacceptable. We are warning in clear terms and the President has also said we should convey this: that we will not accept anybody, any individual flying any foreign flag in Nigeria,” the CDS said.
“That is a treasonable offence, and it will be viewed and treated as such. So, nobody should allow himself to be used by any individual,” he said.
The Defence chief also addressed those calling for military takeover of government, reiterating the military’s commitment to defending democracy.
“Also, regarding the issue of coups, Nigeria is a sovereign nation. Nigeria is a democratic nation. All security agencies are here to defend democracy and ensure that democracy continues to strive,” Musa said.
“We will not accept anyone pushing or taking any action, seemingly or for whatever reason, to want to push for any change of government,” he said.
What analysts say
Similarly, some prominent Nigerians raised concerns about the security implications for the country.
A lawyer, Bulama Bukarti, said the images indicated the growing support for Russia in Northern Nigeria.
“Two aspects of the ongoing hunger protest in Nigeria particularly intrigue me. Firstly, there is a small but growing support for Russia and a corresponding rise in anti-West sentiment, especially in Northern Nigeria. Some protesters in Kano carried the Nigerian flag alongside the Russian flag, and there have been calls from some participants for demonstrators to bring Russian flags and photos of Vladimir Putin to seek Russia’s assistance,” Bukarti said.
“More concerning is that these protesters do not seem to be affiliated with any pro-Russian group; they simply made amateur flags as observed by @Aliyussufiy who took the first photo, suggesting that this sentiment is developing organically. This trend is likely to expand, especially as malign actors may observe and exploit it,” he said.
Former Nigerian ambassador to the Philippines, Yemi Farounbi, called on the organisers of the protest to avoid any external influence.
“It is an unfortunate incident to fly the flag of a foreign country during your protest. When you recall that there is Russian presence in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Congo, one begins to wonder that you may be having an externalisation or an external indication of an internal domestic protest against certain circumstances,” Farounbi said.
“It is tragic, and I do not think that is what the organisers wanted. Certainly, that is not what Nigerians want. They do not want Nigeria to become impacted by ideological warfare between the West and the East. They do not want to see a replacement of Russia-backed military action in Nigeria.
“It is unfortunate. Perhaps, it is a reason for the patriotic organisers of the protest to stop the demonstration before it becomes something that some people will take over from them or turn Nigeria to a pawn.
“Those who are supported by this Russian regime have broken away from ECOWAS to form a separate body. It is something that other West African countries should be wary of,” he said.
Final thoughts
There is no doubt that the protests have highlighted the growing influence of civil society and labour unions in shaping Nigeria’s political landscape. These groups, which have been at the forefront of organizing the demonstrations, are demanding not just economic relief but also greater accountability and transparency from the government. Their involvement suggests that any resolution to the crisis will need to be both economic and political in nature.
In the broader context, the ongoing unrest serves as a stark reminder of the challenges facing democracies where economic hardship intersects with governance issues. For Tinubu, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether his administration can rise to the occasion and address the root causes of the protests or whether Nigeria will face a prolonged period of political and social instability.
