One thing you must give to Bola Ahmed Tinubu is his ability to read the climes and exploit extant situations.
You may start the chart from his governorship of Lagos State. Just one opportunity, and he entrenched himself as the god of Lagos. When President Olusegun Obasanjo pulled the rug off the feet of all south west governors, he was the sole survivor. Those who were brighter and more distinguished than him fell for Obasanjo’s vote right for president and left for governor.
The narrative was that Yorubas were sophisticated enough for such a simple task. Tinubu’s street instincts stopped him from swallowing that. And that saved his career. His contemporaries in the zone instantly became yesterday’s men.
Like him or hate him, he has since clutched Lagos in the palm of his hand, directly or by proxy for 25 years. When Obasanjo tried to stifle him, he headed to the courts and got judgements that established the near-sovereignty of states. He got sufficient elbow room, and through tax farming, raised the revenue of Lagos to unprecedented levels – N651 billion in 2023. (But don’t ask where the revenue has been deployed, for Lagos certainly doesn’t look as if it had seen a quarter of the amount raised annually).
Tinubu plotted and grabbed the presidency of Nigeria, in a way that few can. And you can bet that he hasn’t come all this way to be stampeded out by protesters.
He had declared that he was going to remove the petrol subsidy, and no amount of protests would make him reverse that. He has done that, and you can bet he came prepared. The #Endbadgovernance protest should have started on inauguration day, when Tinubu declared petrol subsidy history. Or latest, it should have started the week that Tinubu floated the Naira, if it was to shake his government. But it took a year for the organisers to ascertain that these policies were bitter and unsustainable. That also gave Tinubu enough lead time to prepare for the backlash.
That the protest took off was a miracle for me. Given Tinubu’s antecedents in the opposition and protest movement, he could easily second guess the organisers. In the light of his experience managing #EndSARS for Buhari’s government, he tried throwing in the regional and ethnic cards to kill off the movement. But it didn’t quite work out.
However, messing up the communication networks worked significantly for the government. No part of the country knew what was happening real time in other parts and that denied them contagious energy.
Tinubu and his minions can toast and savour their success now. They made a leaking balloon out of the protest. But it may turn out to be just a battle won, not a war won.
Tinubu’s policies on petrol and the naira have scorched the nation. Hunger is all over the land, and it doesn’t have sectional or ethnic identity. Yes, the south east looked the other way during the protest. It wasn’t because it was unaffected by the pains. It was simply because of the tendency towards ethnic profiling by the supporters of this government towards Igbos.
Next time, however, the protest may not be very civil. Hunger will likely drive the people wild. The government’s private army, otherwise called areaboys that are usually unleashed against the Igbos in Lagos may get very hungry. And their allowance for combat duties may not suffice for their families. Igbo traders that always have cash may not be liquid enough as purchasing power dries up.
At this point, action is likely to be instantaneous. There may not be identifiable leaders to intimidate or bribe. The outcome would be anybody’s guess.
Worse, banditry which still remains a northern phenomenon, has a good chance of being blown southwards by hunger. And the who’s nation will be an unsavory porridge.
It may yet turn out a pyrrhic victory for Mr President. And neither his mocking speech nor even a meaningful one will do.
DIASPORA CHRONICLES: North Cyprus beckons with easy visa, low school fees
After obtaining a bachelor’s degree in Nigeria, Obioma wanted a master’s from Europe. In 2022, he zeroed in his mind on Turkish North Cyprus.
Top on his mind was cost. School fee in North Cyprus was (and still is) about half the cost in other European countries.
Secondly, the country operates a visa-on-arrival system. So, for him, there was no visa hassles with the attendant fraud that many students had experienced.
So, off he flew to the southern European country.
The promises held true: visa was stamped on arrival, and school fees had no hidden portions. But that’s Europe at the basic level.
Obioma needed a job to help sustain himself and that’s when he saw the flip side of North Cyprus. The country had little or no jobs for international students. Obioma took a construction job, only to be swindled out of his wage – it was illegal for international students to take construction jobs. He wasn’t the only victim. Many other students suffered the same fate.
After that baptism of fire, he landed a better job as a teaching and research assistant. But the pay was unlike what obtains in many European Union (EU) countries.
“While I worked as a teaching and research assistant, my salary was equivalent to 400USD. My rent and utility bills were 200USD (for a room in a 3 bedroom flat). Although I should have around 200USD to live on, having to pay rent between six and 12 months in advance made things a bit difficult”, Obioma said.
But he soldiered on. He had just his weight to carry, as neither family in Ikorodu, Lagos, nor relations in his native Anambra State piled financial pressure on him.
Obioma considers the successful completion of his MBA as the highpoint of his sojourn in North Cyprus.
But he says if he were to start all over again, his choice would be wider. “Yes, I would have looked at other countries within the European Union whose school fees are similar or less than what obtains in North Cyprus. Portugal, Italy and Austria for instance, are good options”.
