When Goodluck Jonathan became the president of Nigeria in 2010, it was a surprise to the entire nation. Pundits did not see it coming a few years earlier. The geopolitics of the presidency, which rotated the top position between the ethnic bulwark of the north and the smarter of the two major ones in the south (at any time), left Jonathan from the minorities as an outsider.
Nobody reckoned with him getting that position, even by magic. Even Jonathan hardly thought it would happen. His apparent fright at the start of the presidency spoke volumes. But it happened, and remained real for some five years.
I told some friends then that Nigeria was evolving by the laws of unintended consequences.
Again, I feel so sure that Nigeria is at the cusp of another major step in its evolution. In 2011, John Campbell, former US ambassador to Nigeria, had predicated that Nigeria would not exist as a nation state beyond 2015. While Campbell openly declared it, the prediction was actually made by a US agency way back in 2005.
Respected journalist and mathematician, Eddie Madunagu, had earlier published it in The Guardian of June 23, 2005, saying: “An American intelligence agency recently predicted that Nigeria might cease to exist as a united country, or might become a “failed state”, in about 10 years from now. The Nigerian government and its institutions and functionaries, as expected, protested vehemently. I remarked that many of these official protesters were being hypocritical, that they, and indeed many professional politicians voice American-type predictions from time to time. Several ordinary Nigerians also protested – some sincerely, others less so”.
In August 2014, Campbell repeated his prediction that by the following year, the nation, Nigeria, would cease to exist. Scary, it was. And those given to permutations thought that the elections of the following year may be the trigger.
Well, 2015 came and went, even with the elections. History was made, with a sitting president conceding an electoral loss. Buhari got the position he had sought for ages and Jonathan kept his word that his electoral win was not worth the blood of any Nigerian. And we still salute the same flag and still sing the same national anthem. So, we booed at Campbell and all the ‘false prophets’. We survived the predicted doomsday. Didn’t we?
There was no explosion of the nation-state; there was no secessation of any part of the federation, despite the threats of the Indigenous People of Biafra. Do these mean that Nigeria was intact?
As a teenager, my mother warned me that whoso sleeps with another man’s wife dies, even while breathing. I deducted from it that death wasn’t just cessation of breathing. There is spiritual death, which might precede the cessation of breathing, the final physical sign of death. In other words, death could be instalmental.
So, when Campbell made public the imminence of Nigeria’s death by 2015, and was derided, could it be we were looking in the wrong direction and missed the signs of death preceding the cessation of breath?
By the way, the focus of most Nigerians has been on Nigeria existing as a united country. The other half of the prediction, becoming a failed state, had been generally ignored. Could we have gotten to any of these two points without being keenly aware?
General Muhammadu Buhari, a combatant officer in the Nigerian civil war, was thought of as a symbol of Nigerian unity. To many, his presidency was a sure sign that the nation would remain united – twice he had sworn to that, and had put his life on the line for that.
It was a shock, however, that Buhari had become the lightening rod for ethnic nationalism. Buhari discounted the rest of Nigeria and filled up positions in his government with people of his ethnic stock, shoving aside the principle of national character that had ensured represention of all parts of the country, even if nominal. Buhari went all out for the ethnic capture of the nation state. He tolerated the arming of militias of his ethnic Fulani stock and their invasion of the historical lands of others, involving mass killings. Fulanis from other parts of west and central Africa swarmed Nigeria in droves and were speedily given Nigerian national identity cards. When all that happened with the feigned ignorance or outright complicity of the president, isn’t the nation dead?
Time ran out on Buhari before he could repopulate all the ethnic lands of Nigeria with his imported Fulani brethren. Bola Ahmed Tinubu was thrown up in the power game to succeed Buhari. Those familiar with his overlordship of Lagos since 1999, worried about the finances of the federation. But worse was to come.
Tinubu has continued with Buhari’s policy, with renewed vigour in some areas. Whereas Buhari toyed with petrol subsidy, Tinubu yanked it off, lock, stock and barrel within the first hour of his presidency, right on the podium where he was sworn in. And the grind started for all Nigerians. Many Nigerians who bought cars in saner times can no longer fuel their cars. The gas-powered mass transit buses that Tinubu promised remain in the land of promise more than a year running.
And like Buhari before him, Tinubu has towed the line of ethnic capture of the nation state. Only his fellow Yorubas are good enough to man the revenue gates of the federation – from Customs, tax offices, ports, etc. He is following a precedent. Nigeria lies comatose to be raped by every male that passes by. Now, tell me the difference between coma and death. How far apart are they?
Now, let’s look at the ‘failed state’ side. A failed state is defined as one that “the state has been rendered ineffective and is not able to enforce its laws uniformly or provide basic goods and services to its citizens”. Isn’t it clear that Nigeria has been a failed state since about 2010 when Boko Haram carved out territories for itself in Borno State and imposed its tax administration? Wasn’t Campbell right?
Tinubu didn’t make Nigeria a failed state directly. He contributed greatly to the outcome of the Buhari government. But what is he making of his own presidency? The way he’s going, there is next to no chance he would bring Nigeria back to rectitude. His party, the APC, has acknowledged that his policies are inflicting pain on Nigerians. But they say that in the end, they would bring joy. They should go preach that in the morgue, for in the end, we are all dead. A person going to Cotonou from Lagos who faces Sagamu, would eventually get to Cotonou after going round the globe, if he lives.
Tinubu’s government is like a pack of hyenas feeding on carrion. The putrefaction is chocking.
