The question is not whether President Tinubu will reshuffle his cabinet or not; the question is when will he do it? In recent weeks, particularly on attainment of one year in office, the administration has witnessed a barrage of caustic comments calling for cabinet reshuffle or outright disengagement of some members of the Federal Executive Council by the President.
Looking at the matter from a broader perspective, the question that comes to mind is: what could possibly be the reason for any cabinet reshuffle?
The former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Kingsley Moghalu said, “To restore confidence, President Tinubu needs to reshuffle his cabinet because one of the reasons that investor confidence disappeared was that the process of appointing his cabinet was too slow, and when he made the announcement, it was largely a very political type of cabinet, and investors were hoping for something more technocratic to deal with the crisis at hand.”
Cabinet reshuffle is as old as democracy itself, if not older. As far back as 1828 when Andrew Jackson was elected US President, he was famous for dismissing government officials who had held the same jobs for years, replacing them with what later became known as The Kitchen Cabinet comprising his informal circle of advisers. The term has endured through many decades, and now generally refers to a politician’s informal circle of advisers. His reshuffling of the government became known as the Spoils System.
In the 20th century, a good example of a kitchen cabinet was the circle of advisers President John F. Kennedy kept around himself. Kennedy respected intellectuals and former government officials with integrity and sharp institutional memory. He would reach out to historians and scholars for informal advice on pressing issues of foreign affairs as well as domestic policy even if he didn’t like their faces and they were not his party members.
Contributing to the British House of Commons Political and Constitutional Reform Committee in 2012, Rt. Hon. Ben Bradshaw noted that the main reason for cabinet reshuffles is to have the best possible team of ministers. Ideally, this process should be about rewarding ability and performance. But in reality other factors come into play such as the need to balance governments politically, bring on young talent by giving them experience in different departments; resolve problems when ministers get into difficulty and are forced to resign or are sacked; refresh sectors that appear tired or underperforming; and reward loyalty. The key determinants here are loyalty and competence both of which are usually considered pari passu. You can’t always take one and leave the other. And this obviously depends on the effectiveness of reshuffles. They can have a positive effect on policy making and delivery or a negative effect depending on the quality of the reshuffle itself. If a Ministry, Department or Agency (MDA) is performing well and delivering, it can cause damage if the Minister or a crucial member of the ministerial team is reshuffled out.
On the other hand, if an MDA is not performing and the issue is not addressed by moving the underperforming minister out, then that will negatively impact on policy making and delivery. If a minister is left in a job for too long, he or she can become stale unless they have a particular passion and special interest in the policy area they cover. But again, if ministers are moved around too frequently, they are never going to be able to perform to their maximum.
Apart from merit, Federal Character Principle which of course is statutory in Nigeria, gender balance, succession, reward for party loyalty and discipline, or what some refer to as political patronage are some of the other seemingly extraneous but very important considerations.
After all the horse-trading and politicking, Nigerians would want to see Ministers that can boldly take their portfolios by the scruff of the neck like Adesina did when he was Minister for Agriculture, or Okonjo-Iweala when she was Finance Minister and coordinator of the economy, or Oby Ezekwesili in Education, under Obasanjo administration. The verdict of history may not be too kind to their colleagues such as Health Minister Tim Menakaya and his Sports counterpart Damisi Sango, both of whom were dropped from Obasanjo’s cabinet for deplorable state of public hospitals that led to 11 weeks doctors’ strike, and poor performance of the country in international sports tournaments during their tenure. At the time, Obasanjo was facing widespread criticism of the quality of his cabinet and the performance of the economy, such that a reshuffle and reinjection of new energy became inevitable. Out of his 49-member cabinet, he dropped 10, and later replaced them with new hands.
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*Anthony-Spinks is the Functioning Director-General, Delta State Public Procurement Commission, Asaba.
