Nigeria’s position among the United States’ top trading partners in Africa is now under pressure, as Egypt and South Africa continue to strengthen their commercial ties with Washington, surpassing Nigeria in total trade volume.
This development comes amid rising tariff tensions and a sharp decline in Nigeria’s exports to the US. Official data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that US imports from Nigeria fell from $2.65 billion in the first five months of 2024 to $2.12 billion during the same period in 2025, a $527 million drop, representing a 20 per cent decline.
The slump followed US President Donald Trump’s April 2 executive order imposing a 10 per cent tariff on most imports, with Nigeria facing a higher 14 per cent duty due to its previous trade surplus with the United States.
Though crude oil exports, Nigeria’s key trade item were exempted from the new tariffs, overall exports still dropped, suggesting broader structural challenges.
In May 2025, Nigeria’s exports to the US stood at $400 million, down from $517 million in May 2024. Crude oil volumes also declined, from 20.4 million barrels in 2024 to 17.39 million barrels in 2025, valued at $1.34 billion.
While Nigeria remains the largest African supplier of crude to the US, its trade leverage is weakening due to limited export diversification, inadequate infrastructure, and regulatory challenges.
Energy exports still made up over 62 per cent of US crude imports from Africa in the reporting period, but Nigeria’s share is steadily shrinking.
In contrast, American exports to Nigeria rose sharply by 17.8 percent, from $2.05 billion in early 2024 to $2.42 billion in 2025, giving the US a $295 million trade surplus, a dramatic reversal from the $596 million deficit recorded the previous year.
A large chunk of this surplus was driven by automobile exports, which totalled $426 million in the first five months of 2025 alone, with $95 million worth of vehicles and parts shipped in May.
Meanwhile, Nigeria is increasingly pivoting towards the BRICS bloc. Trade with BRICS countries surged to N5.41 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, more than triple the value of its exports to the US, reflecting a strategic realignment.
But this pivot also carries risks, as President Trump has threatened an additional 10 per cent tariff on BRICS-aligned countries, potentially pushing Nigeria’s tariff exposure to 24 per cent.
Reacting to these developments, Dr Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, warned that global tariff instability could hamper non-oil export growth and disrupt manufacturing operations that rely on imported machinery and inputs.
He called for urgent investment in local production capacity to reduce Nigeria’s vulnerability to global shocks.
Segun Kuti-George, Vice President of the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, echoed these concerns, saying that policy uncertainty has dampened investor confidence and slowed the country’s efforts at export diversification.
However, Mr Ademola Oshodi, Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Foreign Affairs and Protocol, played down the fears, saying Nigeria is not a formal BRICS member and should not be subject to any punitive US tariffs targeting that bloc.
He stressed that Nigeria remains committed to a balanced trade strategy, maintaining productive relations with both advanced and emerging economies.
Nevertheless, analysts note that with Egypt and South Africa now surpassing Nigeria in US trade volumes, the country must urgently enhance its export competitiveness, invest in modern trade infrastructure, and develop a broader, more resilient trade strategy to reclaim its position on the global stage.
