Nigeria’s Senate is putting an end to budget guesswork. Lawmakers have issued a stern warning that overly ambitious projections, recycled assumptions, and multiple budgets within a single fiscal year will no longer be tolerated.
The Senate Committee on Finance, led by Senator Sani Musa (Niger East), held a rigorous review of the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), the blueprint guiding the 2026 Appropriation Act.
Finance Minister Wale Edun revealed a ₦30 trillion revenue shortfall in the 2025 budget, noting that only ₦10 trillion of the ₦40 trillion projected revenue was realised. About 70 percent of capital projects from 2025 are being rolled over to 2026, confirming that Nigeria has been effectively running overlapping budgets.
“This practice of multiple budgets is unacceptable,” said Senator Danjuma Goje (Gombe Central). “From 2026, budget implementation must be normalised.”
Senator Olalere Oyewumi (Osun West) added that governments must propose realistic, achievable budgets, warning that optimistic numbers that collapse under implementation are detrimental to the economy.
The Finance Committee also questioned why previously approved borrowings were not deployed to plug revenue gaps. In response, Senator Musa assured Nigerians that budget normalisation would begin in 2026 and announced the formation of a three-man ad hoc team to work with the Finance Ministry and Accountant-General to ensure payments to contractors for 2024 projects are completed by year-end.
Revenue mobilisation was another key focus. The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) proposed a ₦31 trillion target for 2026, which the committee rejected, instructing Chairman Zacch Adedeji to raise the figure to ₦35 trillion. Adedeji noted that FIRS had generated ₦25.2 trillion in 2025 but that fiscal disorder from overlapping budgets undermines strong revenue performance.
Meanwhile, the architects of the proposed ₦54.4 trillion 2026 budget, including Minister of Budget and Economic Planning Senator Atiku Bagudu and Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, defended assumptions on oil production (1.84 million barrels per day), oil price ($64.85 per barrel), and the exchange rate (₦1,512 per dollar). Senators, however, insisted these numbers align with real market conditions and economic trends.
The review is being treated as a forensic stress test rather than a routine exercise, with all assumptions, from GDP growth to inflation, being scrutinised line by line against actual data from ministries, departments, and government-owned enterprises.
The Senate also flagged the withdrawal of US support for child immunisation, signaling a need for domestic financing, and explored structural revenue options, including a proposed sugar-related bill aimed at reducing dependence on oil.
In closing, Senators emphasised that the 2026 budget must be credible, data-driven, and enforceable, signalling a new era of fiscal discipline in a challenging economic environment.
