Exactly 14 days after the presidential election that produced General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd) of APC as winner, Nigerians go to the polls again today to elect governors for 29 of the 36 states and elect members to the 36 Legislative Houses in the country.
If political behaviour exhibited by Nigerians in the polls of yore is used as a scale to measure the outcome of today’s contest , it is likely that the result of the presidential election of march 28 2015 will have a bandwagon effect on the direction of the Governorship election as states presently in the grip of PDP may be inclined to opt out of opposition EXACTLY two weeks after the presidential election that produced General Muhammadu Buhari Rtd, as winner, Nigerian’s go to the polls again today to vote for their governors and members of the House of Assembly in their respective states.
The presidential election has been adjudged by Local and International Observers, European Union and International Community as free fair and credible.
The outcome of the election and the prevailing peace that followed have shown that democracy is fast maturing in Nigeria and the eyes of the world are watching as another election holds today.
Before the presidential, and National Assembly election, the political atmosphere was over heated and fully charged. There were fears that the tension that has over shadowed the political space may lead to blood bath and violence that may eventually lead to the break up of Nigeria as predicted by the Western World and those that do not wish the country well.
The Nigerian people have proved the world wrong as the 2015 general election is now seen world over as one of the freest, fairest, credible and most transparent election ever to have been conducted in Nigeria.
This verdict may not be far from the truth as stakeholders and other concerned authorities decided to work together in the interest of the unity of Nigeria.
The major actors at the forefront of the political battle were all made to sign peace accord assuring Nigerians that they would embrace peace no matter the out come of the election as Nigeria is greater and bigger than the ambition of any individual or political parties. This has really paid off as the nation presently enjoys peace even after the presidential election.
The presidential election has come and gone but Nigerians are expected to conduct themselves peacefully as they did two weeks ago in today’s election.
Aside Edo, Ondo, Ekiti, Osun, Anambra, Bayelsa, Kogi States the 29 states will participate in today’s governorship election while the House of Assembly election will take place in the 36 states in the federation.
Before today’s election, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) controled more states than the opposition. All Progressive Congress (APC) but the presidential election of March 28th 2015 has turned the tide against the ruling party as APC delivered 21 states while the PDP got 15 states including the FCT.
The states won by the APC include Kaduna, Kwara, Oyo, Kogi, Kano, Jigawa, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Katsina, Niger, Lagos, Gombe, Adamawa, Zamfara, Kebbi, Benue, Yobe, Sokoto and Borno etc.
States won by PDP includes Enugu, Nasarawa, Ekiti, Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Imo, Plateau, Ebonyi, Bayelsa, Cross-River, Edo, Taraba, Delta, Anambra, Rivers and the FCT.
Though the ruling party has lost the presidency, it may still be targeting more states in today’s election to make them relevant and a strong opposition that will put the in-coming government of the APC on her toe.
Now that APC is fully in charge of the government at the centre (Federal Government) no state may want to be in opposition so that they will not be frustrated when it comes to favours from the top to the bottom. The bandwagon effect may come to play in today’s poll Election is also expected to be tough in Imo State.
Barely two weeks of APC victory in the presidential race there have been realignment of forces and mass defection from PDP to APC knowing fully well that politics is a game of numbers. Defection is now the order of the day across the country as APC in Edo, Kwara, Rivers, Jigawa and other states are harvesting new members since the declaration of the presidential election result.
The battle for the control of more states in this election and a grip of the states House of Assemblies are target for both political parties especially the Houses of Assembly election. It is a known fact that even when a political party loses the governorship seats but has majority in the state house of Assembly such a party controls the states and can hold the governors to do their biding and ensure that only what they want passes through legislative process.
As we go into this election today, Rivers State in the south-south is one of the major battle grounds for PDP and APC whose leaders would like to win. The PDP would want to prove appoint that without Jonathan and the PDP at the centre it can still win Rivers State but the opposition now led by the Governor Rotimi Ameachi who defected from PDP to APC has been having a running battle with the ruling party and will not want to be in the opposition any more. As the Director General of Buhari campaign team although lost Rivers State to PDP with over 1.4 million votes, will want to redeem his image by winning the state.
Ameachi alleged that there was no election in Rivers State but that the result was written The PDP faulted his claim and today another battle line is drawn and both parties are ready to prove their critics wrong on the outcome, allegations and counter-allegation on the presidential election.
Lagos State in the South-West is another state of interest due to the recent political development that has heated up the polity.
Lagos is the commercial nerve centre of Nigeria and the President elect knows this as such visited Lagos to join forces with the APC to ensure that Lagos remain an APC state. The presidential election has shown that PDP is relevant opposition in Lagos State as they lost the presidential election with 160 thousand votes. Lagos had the highest numbers of registered voters of 5.8 million but just well over 1.5 million people were accredited to vote in that election. Approximately the parties will go all out to woo the over 4.3 million voters who were registered but did not vote because they were not accredited. Voters apathy must be worked upon by both parties.
Akwa-Ibom in the South-South is another state to watch as the state is controlled by the PDP and won the presidential election with over 894,893. The opposition party alleged that there was no election in the state but results were written. The opposition APC has a lot of work to do in this state. APC is now at the centre, there is possibility that the bandwagon effect may set in as no state would want to be in opposition. The state has enjoyed a robust relationship with the Federal Government.
The battle in the north is unique in today’s election because of the following factors that may decide where the votes will go. These factors include strong party affiliation; gale of defections, ethnicity and the likely bandwagon effect of the victory of Buhari, ethno-religious configuration; the personality of candidates; zoning/power shift syndrome and probable voters’ apathy. The whole of the north is a focal point for nay political parties that want to win election due to its large numbers of voters. Generally the north is APC.
In the North-West; Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna and Jigawa are another points to watch in today’s poll. APC won Kaduna with 1.2 million votes, Kebbi with over 500 thousand, Katsina 1.3 million and Jigawa over 800 thousand. The PDP would do all it could to remain relevant in this areas but the bandwagon effect might dictate the outcome of the election.
The political tension may be more in states where Independent National Electoral Commission (INCE) would not be conducting governorship election. The parties will go all out to have majority if not all in their various State Houses of Assemblies. These states include Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti State and Bayelsa. The governors in these respective states know the implication of working with an opposition state House of Assembly.
Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose may have worst tale to tell as he is presently facing an impeachment threat from opposition House of Assembly members.
Whatever the outcome of the election today one can not rule out some factors and indices that would shape the race which include ethnicity, religion, godfather syndrome, bandwagon effect coalition of forces and performance in office.
In all, election is not a do or die affair. President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan has shown it with his position and stand. He promised the county free and fair elections and he kept to his words. He has also expanded the space for Nigerians to participate in the democratic process. This is a legacy he will certainly leave behind.
Today’s contestants should follow the foot steps of Jonathan and Buhari as the eye of the global community is fixed on Nigeria to know if the rebirth of the country’s democracy is real or not. The world was taken by surprise due to the outcome of the Presidential election. Same should be replicated today as we choose our governors, and members of state Houses of Assemblies.
As a matter of fact, Nigeria as a nation has joined the league of nations across the world that have successfully conducted peaceful, credible, free, fair, transparent and acceptable elections. As a nation, we seat high up there among democratic nations in the world due to the sportsmanship of President Jonathan who did not even wait for official announcement from INEC before conceding defeat and congratulating his opponent Muhammadu Buhari. This should be the trend in our present democratic dispensation. The tempo should be maintained by all politicians vying for offices today. The job is half done and should be completed today April 11, 2015. Let this election be peaceful no matter the outcome. We must remain as one entity and prove doom sayers wrong letting them know we have matured democratically.
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