The Federal Government of Nigeria and the 36 sub national governments in the country will spend N44.94 trillion to execute both recurrent and capital projects in 2024, information gleaned from the approved 2024 budgets of the two tiers of government has revealed.
The Federal Government of Nigeria will spend N28.78 trillion in the current fiscal year, comprising N10 trillion allocated to capital projects; N8.77 trillion as recurrent expenditure (non-debt); another N8.27 trillion recurrent expenditure for debt servicing, as well as N1.74 trillion as statutory transfers. This implies FG’s share in the approved budgets of the two tiers of government amounted to 64 percent.
Both the FG and the 36 states are banking on the current state of affairs in the international crude oil and gas market. It should be noted that crude oil prices have remained relatively above $75 dollar per barrel all through 2023, and with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cautiously monitoring market developments, it is expected that the 2024 budget assumptions on crude oil prices at $78 per barrel will be realised.
Lagos State, Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre, will spend N2.267 trillion in this fiscal year. The total expenditure comprises N1.316 trillion as capital expenditure and N952.43 trillion as recurrent expenditure. The 2024 budget of Lagos State amounted to 14 percent of the total budgets of the 36 states in question.
Akwa Ibom is to spend N849.97 billion in the current fiscal year consisting of N492.70 billion as capital expenditure while N352.91 billion was allocated to recurrent expenditure. Oil-rich Rivers State will spend N800.39 billion, which includes N410.30 billion for capital and N361.60 billion as recurrent expenditure in 2024.
Delta State will spend N724.98 billion in the current year, divided into N408.35 billion as capital expenditure while N316.62 billion was earmarked for recurrent expenditure. Ogun State in south west has budgeted N703.98 billion for the fiscal year, comprising N415.66 billion as capital expenditure just as N287.37 billion will be expended as recurrent expenditure.
Niger State in the north central geopolitical zone will spend N 613.99 billion, divided into N464.79 as capital expenditure while the state approved N149.20 billion as recurrent expenditure.
Imo State has allocated N491.20 bn as capital expenditure with N101.99 billion as recurrent expenditure out of the total budget of N592.20 billion. Abia State will spend N476.45 billion as capital expenditure with N90.75 billion set aside for recurrent obligations.
Enugu State plans to spend N414.34 billion as capital expenditure with N107.20 billion set aside for recurrent expenditure. Bayelsa State’s 2024 appropriation act split the total budget of N480.99 billion almost evenly between capital and recurrent expenditures. The oil-rich state will spend N257.78 billion on capital projects while recurrent expenditure will gulp N223.21 billion.
Kaduna State has said it will correct past mistakes in the state with the 2024 budget, where it plans to spend N458.27 billion in the current fiscal year. This is split into N318.84 billion for capital expenditure, and N139.43 billion for recurrent expenditure.
Other federating states as well as their 2024 total budgets are Katsina, N454.31 billion; Oyo, N438.45 billion; Kano, N437.34 billion; Zamfara, N426.50 billion; Anambra, N410.13 billion; Ondo, 395.26 billion; Borno, N358.70 billion; Edo, N342.80 billion, and Plateau, N314.80 billion.
We also have Taraba, N313.39 billion; Bauchi, N300.22 billion; Jigawa, N298.14 billion; Cross River, N296.96 billion; Kwara, N296.40 billion; Osun, N273.91 billion; Sokoto, N270 billion; Kogi, N258.20 billion; Kebbi, N250.10 billion, and Kebbi, 250.10 billion.
States with the least 2024 budgets are Adamawa, N225.80; Benue, N225.70 billion; Yobe, N216.95 billion; Gombe, N208.06 billion; Ebonyi, N204 billion; Nasarawa, N199.88 billion, and Ekiti, N159.57 billion.
Afrinvest urges for caution on 2024 budget
While appraising the 2024 budget, an investment research outfit, Afrinvest urges Nigerians not to be over optimistic about the current year budget.
“Aggregate revenue projection is overly optimistic given prevailing weak macroeconomic environment and continued inefficiencies in many of the FG revenue-generating agencies.
“Expectations of a 43.9% share of the projected revenue from oil & gas is unrealistic. This is due to agreed OPEC+ output cut till 2024, incessant sabotage in the oil-rich Niger-Delta, and the time lag required for the new exploration licenses to manifest gains.
“Albeit, we expect downward pressure on global oil price and domestic crude output to derail budgeted oil revenue in 2024. Also, our model suggests that the budget deficit should exceed ₦13.0tn (budgeted: ₦9.3tn), while annual GDP growth should print at about 3.0% in a base case as against FG’s 3.8% projection.
“We opine that cost-cutting initiatives, full implementation of capex, and fiscal discipline to rein-in on rising debt are sustainable ways to enhance the impact of budget on economic growth,” Afrinvest stated in its 2024 economic outlook report.
