THE much talked about year is here, the much anticipated election is around the corner with political activities at its peak as political campaigns and politicians are moving from one location to the other canvassing for votes from the electorates, promising to improve their standard of living.
There has been a lot of predictions and prophecies about 2015, prediction and prophecy of doom for this nation especially from international community. They believe that Nigeria as a united and indivisible entity will not go beyond 2015 and that the general election would lead to Nigeria breaking up.
In few days time Nigerians will go to the polls to elect the leaders that will pilot the affairs of this great country for another four years, facing the huge task of either building the nation and making it more united or breaking the unity and making it vulnerable and exposed to violence that may lead to divisibility thereby fulfilling the evil prophecies and predictions.
If this prediction and prophecy must not come to pass, it will depend on the level-headedness of the political gladiators as well as the electorates.
As the elections draw closer, more worrisome is the style of campaign of the political parties vying for various political positions. They have deviated from issues –based campaign and now embarked on names calling, character assassination and all other negative form of tarnishing the image of one another thereby raising tension and heating up the polity, preparing it for violent eruptions from the various Geo-political zones of this nation.
The political atmosphere is gradually being filled with uncertainty and the system is now being overheated by the campaign strategy and style chosen, and if care is not taken, it can set the nation on fire, which may lead to loss of lives and destruction of property.
With the recant postpmement of the 2015 general election the National Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Attaihiru Jega briefed the Senate arm of the National Assembly on the rationale behind the post-ponement from February 14th and 28th to March 28th and April 11th.
Jega who sited security challenges (Boko Haram insurgency precisely) in the North-Eastern part of the country as the reason behind the postponement, called on Nigerians to support the security forces within the six weeks postponement to make the North-East safe enough for the conduct of elections in the region. The questions on the lips of Nigerians are
· Can the military do in six weeks what they could not do in six years?
· What if in six weeks the North-East region is still not safe enough to conduct elections, will the elections be postponed for the second time?
Recent reports from the military show that that military are gaining grounds on Boko Haram and have taken over the town of Baga and some local government areas that were under the control of the insurgents and also the recent bombardment of some strongholds of Boko Haram in Sambisa forest by Nigeria Airforce, shows that Nigerian Armed forces have intensified their efforts on defeating the insurgents following the gallant effort of the Nigerian forces, the support of the African Union and the effort of some West African countries (Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Benin, to prevent Boko Haram from operating beyond the borders of Nigeria, successes have been recorded by the Nigerian forces. It shows the security forces are committed to making Nigeria safe enough to conduct the forth- coming elections.
The recent deployment of thousands of troops by Niger and Cameroom on their borders, blocking escape routes for Boko Haram, the tide may be turning. In what Nigeria has branded a sign of desperation, the Islamist group has carried out wave of suicide bombing in recent weeks.
The President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan recently task the service heads to capture the leader of Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, alive. With these development, many Nigerians can’t help but ask why it took so long to act? Boko Haram killed thousands last year and kidnapped many more including over two hundred Chibok girls in April 15, 2014.
It should also be noted that Rtd. Gen. Mohammadu Buhari, former military ruler who is running as the presidential candidate for the opposition, All Progressive Congress (APC) has gained popularity with voters desperate for tough policies both on corruption and insecurity (Boko Haram specifically).
Against this background, Nigeria’s Electoral Commissioner, Prof. Attahiru Jega announced a six weeks postponement to allow the army tackle the security situation in the North-East so that voting could kick start. The postponement was not centered around INEC Chairman but the military who said they needed six weeks to make the North-East zone safe for all during election.
After Nigerian Army retook Baga lost month, Army Chief, Major General Kenneth Minimah said his soldiers would recapture a handful of the remaining towns before the elections, listing Dikwa as one of them. “The war is almost ended,” he said.
Book Haram was long regarded by neighbouring countries as an internal Nigerian problem, but attacks on Cameroon and Niger last year prompted the regional response. Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Benin and Cameroon agreed in May to join forces against the militants. Since then, disrupt and misunderstanding have hindered preparations for the force due to take effect by the end of this month. With the promise of the emergence of this Joint Task Force, the prospect of Nigeria overcoming the menace of Boko Haram is bright.
The postponement of the elections was tied to the insecurity in the North-East region, but from all indications, it seems that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was not fully prepared as well. This is because some Nigerians have not gotten their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs). Just last week, INEC confirmed that a million PVCs were still under production in China. What is the possibility of the owners of these cards under production getting them before the general elections? Nigerians have taken the postponement in good faith, as it was geared towards securing the north-east for the elections and also, it has been used as an avenue to distribute more PVCs to those who had not gotten theirs before the postponement, thereby reducing the numbers of persons who will be disenfranchised.
The question now is, are we gearing towards another postponement if by the end of the six weeks the security forces say that north-east is still not safe enough for elections? What if by the end of the six weeks a reasonable numbers of voters still have not gotten their PVCs? Will INEC allow them to use their temporary voters cards or will they automatically be disenfranchised?
With the recent bombing in Yobe, Kano and the likes, one cannot help but wonder what Boko Haram has got planned for the general elections and ask how prepared the security forces are for the forthcoming elections?
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